Will a Chinese AI model be ranked #1 on a major AI leaderboard by the end of 2024? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (203D) ]
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $1 | $10K | B | KXBESTLLMCHINA-27 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | huggingface.co | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "huggingface.co" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbestllmchina-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbestllmchina-27.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbestllmchina-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-12. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YT2BFW4G26",
"slug": "kxbestllmchina-27",
"question": "Will a Chinese AI model be ranked #1 on a major AI leaderboard by the end of 2024?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-model-rankings",
"chinese-tech",
"artificial-intelligence",
"2027",
"benchmark-performance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10015,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "huggingface.co",
"resolution_source_url": "https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}