Which bills will become law in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]

kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 29 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
That reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for any length of time	2027-01-01	98.0%	—	$6.7K	A	`KXBILLS-FISAANY`
That would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development	2027-01-01	86.0%	$2.1K	$17K	A	`KXBILLS-HOUS`
That imposes enhanced federal safety requirements on freight rail carriers and trains transporting hazardous materials (e.g., mandates for wayside defect detectors, two-person crews, tank car safety standards, and state emergency notification)	2027-01-01	69.0%	$29	$512	A	`KXBILLS-26MAY-RAIL`
That provides multi-year reauthorization and funding for federal surface transportation programs through the Highway Trust Fund and general fund appropriations	2027-01-01	62.0%	$9	$321	A	`KXBILLS-SURF`
That amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken”	2027-01-01	60.0%	$7	$2.4K	A	`KXBILLS-HRCA`
That imposes an annual federal registration fee on electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with the revenue dedicated to the Highway Trust Fund	2027-01-01	57.0%	$2	$303	A	`KXBILLS-EVFEE`
Principally aimed at strengthening federal efforts to protect Jewish Americans from antisemitism, including through civil-rights enforcement, physical security support, threat monitoring, or online-platform transparency	2027-01-01	49.0%	$6	$247	A	`KXBILLS-JSEC`
That creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes	2027-01-01	47.0%	$7	$2.9K	A	`KXBILLS-DEFY`
> 40	2027-01-01	47.0%	—	$212	A	`KXBILLS-26JU…LIN`
That requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export	2027-01-01	43.0%	$563	$3.0K	A	`KXBILLS-CHIP`
That mandates expanded adoption of ADS-B “Out” aircraft tracking technology	2027-01-01	40.0%	$2	$4.2K	A	`KXBILLS-ROTOR`
That establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions	2027-01-01	34.0%	—	$4.1K	A	`KXBILLS-MIN`
That reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years	2027-01-01	25.0%	$82	$30K	A	`KXBILLS-FISA`
Principally aimed at establishing a federal framework for college sports, including through NIL preemption, antitrust treatment of association rules, athlete-compensation standards, student-athlete protections, or employment-status rules	2027-01-01	25.0%	$3	$97	A	`KXBILLS-NIL`
That extends Section 181 expensing for film and television productions	2027-01-01	24.0%	—	$1.6K	A	`KXBILLS-TV`
That redefines “showerhead” for DOE rules to allow multi-nozzle systems	2027-01-01	23.0%	—	$3.1K	A	`KXBILLS-SHOW`
That subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period	2027-01-01	20.0%	—	$1.1K	A	`KXBILLS-AIO`
That preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the testing and deployment of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems	2027-01-01	20.0%	—	$1.4K	A	`KXBILLS-DRIVE`
That prohibits data center power usage from increasing consumers' electric utility bills	2027-01-01	20.0%	—	$1.3K	A	`KXBILLS-DATA`
That allows year-round nationwide sale of E15 fuel by extending the Clean Air Act Reid Vapor Pressure waiver to ethanol blends up to 15%	2027-01-01	20.0%	$2	$291	A	`KXBILLS-E15`
That changes the official name of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Fort Liberty	2027-01-01	18.0%	$4	$7	A	`KXBILLS-BRAGG`
That pairs enhanced border security and mandatory E-Verify with asylum system reforms and an earned legal status program (without a path to citizenship) for certain long-term undocumented immigrants	2027-01-01	14.0%	$0	$353	A	`KXBILLS-DIGNITY`
That requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions	2027-01-01	13.0%	—	$1.4K	A	`KXBILLS-CCR`
That authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom	2027-01-01	12.0%	$59	$987	A	`KXBILLS-BALL`
That renames Washington Dulles International Airport after Donald Trump	2027-01-01	8.3%	$17	$449	A	`KXBILLS-AIRP`
That would require Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary	2027-01-01	8.0%	$5	$1.1K	A	`KXBILLS-250C`
That designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees	2027-01-01	7.4%	$46	$143	A	`KXBILLS-DJTB`
That authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve	2027-01-01	7.1%	—	$413	A	`KXBILLS-SMITH`
That bars government agencies or private entities from using ADS-B aircraft-tracking data to identify aircraft for the purpose of obtaining revenue from the aircraft owner or operator without consent	2027-01-01	0.0%	—	—	A	`KXBILLS-ADSB`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	White House	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 29 markets · share this text

If legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone. Clarification: 'FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)' (KXBILLS-FISA) resolves to Yes only if FISA Section 702 is reauthorized for exactly two years, as in the provided example (Public Law 118-49). A reauthorization for any other duration would not qualify. Clarification: To be clear, legislation that appropriates funds for security adjustments and upgrades relating to the East Wing Modernization Project, a project that includes the construction of a presidential ballroom, constitutes legislation that "authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom," even if the funds are restricted to security elements of that construction.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House"

sources (2) · single authority

White House venue-listed
Library of Congress source of record venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for any length of time become law before Jan 1, 2027?	kalshi	`2027-01-01`	`98%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbills/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbills`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxbills")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XJ11K05DW7",
  "slug": "kxbills",
  "question": "Which bills will become law in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-legislation",
    "2026-policy",
    "lawmaking-process",
    "congressional-action",
    "regulatory-outcome"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 29,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 84680,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 88,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "White House",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "White House",
      "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Library of Congress",
      "url": "https://congress.gov",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →