Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence? [ resolves 2027-01 – 2028-01 ]
Will Papua New Guinea the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (23)
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Deutsche Welle venue-listed
- Financial Times venue-listed
- France 24 English venue-listed
- The Guardian venue-listed
- NBC News venue-listed
- The Times of India venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- CBS News venue-listed
- ABC News venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- NHK World-Japan venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- BBC News venue-listed
- The Globe and Mail venue-listed
- Al Jazeera English venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- The South China Morning Post venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- Channel NewsAsia venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbougainvilleind/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbougainvilleind |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbougainvilleind") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M80F0W2DD3",
"slug": "kxbougainvilleind",
"question": "Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"papua-new-guinea",
"bougainville",
"independence",
"political-sovereignty",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6253,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Deutsche Welle",
"url": "https://www.dw.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Financial Times",
"url": "https://www.ft.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "France 24 English",
"url": "https://www.france24.com/en/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC News",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Times of India",
"url": "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS News",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NHK World-Japan",
"url": "https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC News",
"url": "https://www.bbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Globe and Mail",
"url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Al Jazeera English",
"url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The South China Morning Post",
"url": "https://www.scmp.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Channel NewsAsia",
"url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/us",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}