Who will run for President of Brazil? [ resolved 2026-10-04 ]
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2026-09-10 | 100.0% | — | $65K | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-LULA | ||
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026-09-10 | 100.0% | — | $26K | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-FBOL | ||
| Renan Santos | 2026-09-10 | 100.0% | — | $1.6K | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-RSAN | ||
| Jair Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | $112 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-JB | ||
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | $0 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-EBOL | ||
| Ratinho Júnior | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | $102 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-RJUN | ||
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | $58 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-TFRI |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Brazilian government | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Brazilian government" sources (1) · single authority
Brazilian government committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tarcisio de Frietas be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ratinho Júnior be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| YES | Will Renan Santos be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-09-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will Flávio Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-09-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-09-10 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (7 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbrballot-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbrballot-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbrballot-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GZ95QDFPN6",
"slug": "kxbrballot-26",
"question": "Who will run for President of Brazil?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazilian-politics",
"presidential-election",
"2026-election",
"candidate-announcement",
"latin-america"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 93174,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Brazilian government",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Brazilian government",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Brazilian government",
"url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}