Who will run for President of Brazil? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (90D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Santos | 2026-10-04 | 97.6% | — | $1.6K | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-RSAN | ||
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2026-10-04 | 86.0% | $1.5K | $49K | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-LULA | ||
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 76.0% | — | $19K | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-FBOL | ||
| Jair Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 6.0% | — | $468 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-JB | ||
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 2026-10-04 | 5.0% | — | $287 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-TFRI | ||
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 4.3% | — | $0 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-EBOL | ||
| Ratinho Júnior | 2026-10-04 | 1.2% | — | $111 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-RJUN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Brazilian government | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Brazilian government" sources (1) · single authority
- Brazilian government source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbrballot-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbrballot-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbrballot-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GZ95QDFPN6",
"slug": "kxbrballot-26",
"question": "Who will run for President of Brazil?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazilian-politics",
"presidential-election",
"2026-election",
"candidate-announcement",
"latin-america"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 70516,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Brazilian government",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Brazilian government",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Brazilian government",
"url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}