Will the winner of Brazil's next presidential election be determined by October 25, 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-25 (82D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2026-10-25 | 66.0% | $531 | $332K | C | KXBRPRES-26-LULA | ||
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026-10-25 | 26.0% | $883 | $178K | C | KXBRPRES-26-FBOL | ||
| Renan Santos | 2026-10-25 | 6.6% | $530 | $31K | C | KXBRPRES-26-RSAN | ||
| Ronaldo Caiado | 2026-10-25 | 2.8% | $54 | $4.4K | C | KXBRPRES-26-RCAI | ||
| Ciro Gomes | 2026-10-25 | 1.0% | — | $1 | C | KXBRPRES-26-CGOM | ||
| Jair Bolsonaro | 2026-10-25 | 0.8% | $2 | $1.1K | C | KXBRPRES-26-JB | ||
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 2026-10-25 | 0.4% | — | $298 | C | KXBRPRES-26-MB | ||
| Romeu Zema | 2026-10-25 | 0.3% | — | $832 | C | KXBRPRES-26-RZEM | ||
| Fernando Haddad | 2026-10-25 | 0.2% | — | $346 | C | KXBRPRES-26-FH | ||
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 2026-10-25 | 0.1% | — | $223 | C | KXBRPRES-26-TDF | ||
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 2026-10-25 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXBRPRES-26-EBOL | ||
| Ratinho Júnior | 2026-10-25 | 0.1% | — | $87 | C | KXBRPRES-26-RJUN | ||
| Aldo Rebelo | 2026-10-25 | 0.1% | — | $34 | C | KXBRPRES-26-AREB |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AP | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AP" sources (1)
AP venue-listed
recent wire items
- Lula 2026 re-election stays a long shot at 18% 18% · $139K 24h
- Kalshi prices Lula at just 18%, the market treats a second term as an outside scenario.
- 34% of all-time volume landed in 24 hours, the sharpest single-session concentration on this contract.
- Brazil political headlines, coalition stress, approval ratings, are likely driving fresh positioning.
- Resolves on the 2026 Brazilian presidential election outcome.
- Lula re-election odds stay under 25% through a volume test 19% · $151K 24h
- Kalshi marks Lula at 19%, decisively underdog, implying the market discounts a second-term path as unlikely.
- 36% of all-time volume hit in one session, the highest single-day share of this contract's lifetime.
- Mirror spike to Spike 0 suggests coordinated re-pricing of the Brazil 2026 binary, not isolated flow.
- Resolves on official Brazilian presidential election outcome, October 2026.
- Traders pile into Flávio Bolsonaro as Brazil frontrunner 81% · $437K 24h
- Kalshi prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 81%, strong favorite status, implying near-consensus on a first-round lead.
- 24h volume of $437K equals 26% of all-time contract volume, the largest single-day deployment on record.
- Fresh capital arrives roughly one year before the October 2026 vote, typically when polling and coalition signals sharpen.
- Contract resolves on official Brazilian electoral results; 81% leaves meaningful tail risk unpriced.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbrpres-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbrpres-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbrpres-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DKSKHZR435",
"slug": "kxbrpres-26",
"question": "Will the winner of Brazil's next presidential election be determined by October 25, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil-politics",
"presidential-election",
"2026-election",
"latin-america",
"political-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 548694,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 61,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "AP",
"resolution_source_url": "https://apnews.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "AP",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}