Will there be a first round winner in the Brazil presidential election? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (90D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2026-10-04 | 70.0% | $236 | $6.0K | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…SIL | ||
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 25.0% | — | $3.4K | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…BOL | ||
| Fernando Haddad | 2026-10-04 | 18.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…HAD | ||
| Renan Santos | 2026-10-04 | 10.0% | — | $191 | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…SAN | ||
| Romeu Zema | 2026-10-04 | 3.0% | — | $38 | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…ZEM | ||
| Ronaldo Caiado | 2026-10-04 | 1.0% | — | $0 | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…CAI | ||
| Tarcísio de Freitas | 2026-10-04 | 1.0% | — | $0 | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…FRE |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission venue-listed
- constitutional court venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbrpres1r-26oct04/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbrpres1r-26oct04 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbrpres1r-26oct04") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NWN8Q06H64",
"slug": "kxbrpres1r-26oct04",
"question": "Will there be a first round winner in the Brazil presidential election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil-politics",
"presidential-election",
"first-round-outcome",
"2027",
"electoral-mechanism"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10759,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "constitutional court",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}