Will there be a first round winner in the Brazil presidential election? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026-10-05 | 100.0% | $65 | $2.9K | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…BOL | ||
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $42 | $11K | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…SIL | ||
| Renan Santos | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $28 | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…SAN | ||
| Romeu Zema | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $19 | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…ZEM | ||
| Fernando Haddad | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $56 | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…HAD | ||
| Ronaldo Caiado | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $25 | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…CAI | ||
| Tarcísio de Freitas | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXBRPRES1R-2…FRE |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" sources (3) · stated precedence rule
or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections venue-listed in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission venue-listed constitutional court venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-10-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Romeu Zema win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Fernando Haddad win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (7 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Kalshi traders back Lula first-round victory at 64% 64% · $47K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Lula first-round majority at 64%, a meaningful favorite, contrasting sharply with Polymarket's 10% on the same question.
- $46,794 in 24h is 38% of all-time volume on this Kalshi contract, signaling focused fresh conviction.
- The wide cross-venue spread (64% vs. 10%) suggests different contract definitions, likely differing thresholds or resolution criteria.
- Resolves YES if Lula exceeds 50% of valid votes in round one.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbrpres1r-26oct04/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbrpres1r-26oct04 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbrpres1r-26oct04") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NWN8Q06H64",
"slug": "kxbrpres1r-26oct04",
"question": "Will there be a first round winner in the Brazil presidential election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil-politics",
"presidential-election",
"first-round-outcome",
"2027",
"electoral-mechanism"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13862,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "constitutional court",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}