Will Bitcoin be above $250,000 by 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Will Bitcoin be above $250000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $250,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | $1 | $8.2K | A | KXBTC2026250…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $250000 starting 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- Bitcoin above $250K by 2027 stays a long shot despite bullish signals Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi puts just 3% odds on Bitcoin exceeding $250,000 by 2027, a deeply skeptical read despite bullish headline flow.
- BlackRock's bullish prediction and Bitcoin's current $84,343 price are not moving the Kalshi needle, the market is dismissing the extreme upside target.
- Bitcoin would need to roughly triple from current levels to hit $250K; the 3% pricing implies the market treats that as a tail scenario, not a base case.
- The Polymarket contract on Ethereum above $3,500 by January 1, 2027 sits at 32%, suggesting the market sees altcoin upside as more plausible than Bitcoin's extreme target, a notable divergence.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtc2026250-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtc2026250-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtc2026250-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3CQP3GL0Y1",
"slug": "kxbtc2026250-27jan01",
"question": "Will Bitcoin be above $250,000 by 2027?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-markets",
"price-prediction",
"2027-resolution",
"threshold-based"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8177,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}