Will Bitcoin cross $100,000 again? [ resolves 2026-10 – 2027-01 ]
Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $100,000 | 2026-10-01 | 9.0% | $644 | $45K | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $13K | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-MAR | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 21.0% | $540 | $106K | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 1.0% | — | $16K | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-APR | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 1.0% | — | $17K | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-MAY | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 1.0% | $783 | $27K | A | KXBTCMAX100-…UNE |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 01/05/2026 03:00 PM and before May 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- CF Benchmarks source of record venue-listed
- CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index from rules text · editorial
- BRTI from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by May 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET? | kalshi | 2027-01-31 | 1% |
| NO | Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET? | kalshi | 2027-01-31 | 1% |
| closed | Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by April 1st, 2026 at 12:00AM ET? | kalshi | 2027-01-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Bitcoin above $100K again holds at deep discount in Kalshi pricing Kalshi 19%
- Kalshi prices a 19% probability that Bitcoin crosses $100,000 again, with the Kalshi ladder showing only 14% above $100K by December 31.
- Whale accumulation and ETF inflow recovery are bullish signals, but the market prices Bitcoin reclaiming $100K as a low-probability outcome from current levels near $65K.
- The Kalshi contract on Bitcoin minimum price above a floor by January 1, 2027 sits at 28%, providing a lower-bound read that reinforces the modest recovery consensus.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks; the $65K current spot price implies a roughly 54% gain required to hit $100K, making the 19% pricing appear calibrated rather than dismissive.
- Bitcoin above $100K consensus wavers under geopolitical weight Kalshi 11%
- Kalshi prices only 11% on Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again, with Bitcoin currently trading near $63,000-$64,000 amid US-Iran conflict.
- Institutional asset managers expanding crypto product lines are not translating into market-implied bullish momentum on the price level contract.
- Kalshi at 26% on Bitcoin's minimum price exceeding a threshold on January 1, 2027 suggests the market sees meaningful downside risk remaining.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks; the contract requires Bitcoin to trade above $100,000 at some point, with the specific timeframe and benchmark methodology governing settlement.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end wavers as conflict weighs Kalshi 14%
- Kalshi prices Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again by December 2026 at only 14%, with the spot price reported near $62,000 amid the US-Iran escalation.
- The $62,000 spot level sits roughly 61% below the $100K strike, and the Kalshi contract reflects a market that sees that gap as unlikely to close this year.
- A companion Ethereum minimum price contract (CM-EVT-ZPYKMKR9X3) prices Ethereum at just 9% to reach a minimum of its target level by January 2027, consistent with broad crypto weakness.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks Bitcoin price on December 31, 2026; energy-driven inflation fears from the Hormuz conflict add a structural headwind not captured in pre-conflict pricing.
- Bitcoin above 100K consensus fractures under geopolitical weight Kalshi 15%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices 15% on Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again, resolving via CF Benchmarks.
- Bitcoin stabilizing near $63,000 after a ceasefire collapse-driven drop to under $61,500 shows resilience, but the $100K threshold remains nearly 60% above current spot, explaining the low probability.
- A companion Polymarket ladder (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9) prices only 13% on Bitcoin above $99,999 by December 31, 2026, confirming cross-venue alignment on the $100K level as a tail outcome.
- Resolution via CF Benchmarks requires a confirmed close above the threshold; escalating US-Iran military activity and risk-off pressure from equities are the primary near-term headwinds the market is pricing.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmax100-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcmax100-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcmax100-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99",
"slug": "kxbtcmax100-26",
"question": "Will Bitcoin cross $100,000 again?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin",
"price-crossing",
"cryptocurrency",
"2026",
"milestone-threshold"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 223545,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "BRTI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}