Bitcoin price, June 1, 2026 [ resolves 2026-09 – 2027-01 ]
Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $100,000 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $23 | $87 | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-AUG | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2026-10-01 | 2.0% | $63 | $19K | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2026-12-01 | 5.0% | $14 | $114 | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-OCT | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $59 | $814 | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-NOV | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $13K | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-MAR | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 13.0% | $124 | $106K | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 1.0% | — | $17K | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-MAY | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 1.0% | — | $34K | A | KXBTCMAX100-…UNE | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 1.0% | — | $16K | A | KXBTCMAX100-26-APR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 01/05/2026 03:00 PM and before June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Sep 1, 2026 at 12:00AMET? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by July 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 1% |
| NO | Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Bitcoin above $100K by September stays a heavy long shot Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by September 1 at just 3-11% across the ladder's top strikes, a heavy long shot.
- Carry-trade unwind fears and yen intervention pledges add macro headwinds to crypto, broadly consistent with the sub-11% ceiling odds.
- A concurrent Bitcoin death-cross signal (20-week EMA crossing below 200-week EMA) reinforces the bearish technical backdrop already embedded in low ladder probabilities.
- The longer-horizon ladder (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9, by Dec 31) prices $100K at only 13%, showing the market sees persistent downside risk well beyond September.
- Bitcoin death-cross signal keeps sub-$100K consensus intact Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by September 1 at 3-11% across top strikes, embedding a deep bearish tilt.
- The death-cross signal, 20-week EMA approaching the 200-week EMA, echoes 2022 conditions and is directionally consistent with low ladder probabilities.
- Coldcard hardware wallet losses exceeding $90 million (Stories 28, 31, 32) add a separate sentiment headwind compounding the technical breakdown signal.
- The December 31 ladder (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9) at 13% for $100K shows the consensus bearish view extends well beyond the September horizon.
- Bitcoin crossing $100K again stays a long shot below 25% Kalshi 17%
- Kalshi prices 17% on Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again.
- Bitcoin holding near $66,000 leaves a roughly 50% move required to hit the strike, which the market treats as unlikely this cycle.
- The Kalshi ladder implies Bitcoin stays below $100,000 by year-end with roughly 84% confidence, consistent with the 17% cross reading.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks Bitcoin reference rate; the contract requires a confirmed print above $100,000, not a brief wick.
- Bitcoin above $100K again holds at deep discount in Kalshi pricing Kalshi 19%
- Kalshi prices a 19% probability that Bitcoin crosses $100,000 again, with the Kalshi ladder showing only 14% above $100K by December 31.
- Whale accumulation and ETF inflow recovery are bullish signals, but the market prices Bitcoin reclaiming $100K as a low-probability outcome from current levels near $65K.
- The Kalshi contract on Bitcoin minimum price above a floor by January 1, 2027 sits at 28%, providing a lower-bound read that reinforces the modest recovery consensus.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks; the $65K current spot price implies a roughly 54% gain required to hit $100K, making the 19% pricing appear calibrated rather than dismissive.
- Bitcoin above $100K consensus wavers under geopolitical weight Kalshi 11%
- Kalshi prices only 11% on Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again, with Bitcoin currently trading near $63,000-$64,000 amid US-Iran conflict.
- Institutional asset managers expanding crypto product lines are not translating into market-implied bullish momentum on the price level contract.
- Kalshi at 26% on Bitcoin's minimum price exceeding a threshold on January 1, 2027 suggests the market sees meaningful downside risk remaining.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks; the contract requires Bitcoin to trade above $100,000 at some point, with the specific timeframe and benchmark methodology governing settlement.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmax100-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcmax100-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcmax100-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99",
"slug": "kxbtcmax100-26",
"question": "Bitcoin price, June 1, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-markets",
"price-milestone",
"near-term-2026",
"uma-subjective"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 205821,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "BRTI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}