BTC trimmed mean by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 [ resolves 2026-08-08 (16D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $65,000 | 2026-08-08 | 97.0% | — | $461K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $67,500 | 2026-08-08 | 44.0% | $58K | $440K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $70,000 | 2026-08-08 | 14.0% | $3.9K | $57K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $72,500 | 2026-08-08 | 6.0% | $1.5K | $27K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $75,000 | 2026-08-08 | 2.0% | $162 | $6.7K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $77,500 | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $26 | $1.2K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $80,000 | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $24 | $700 | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $82,500 | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $1 | $1.5K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 is ever above $
65000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" sources (2) · single authority
- CF Benchmarks source of record venue-listed
- CF BRTI price for BTC from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $65000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-15 | 97% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Bitcoin ending July above $67,500 looks like a long shot Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices only 6% on Bitcoin's trimmed mean closing above $67,500 by 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026.
- Bitcoin's retreat to $63,000 from $65,500 resistance is consistent with the ladder stacking heavily below $67,500 with near-zero probability above $70,000.
- The distribution implies a ceiling well below prior highs; risk-off geopolitical sentiment from Iran uncertainty is the cited macro driver.
- Kalshi contract CM-EVT-3CQP3GL0Y1 prices only 3% on Bitcoin above $250,000 by 2027, confirming the broader long-horizon bearish lean.
- Bitcoin above $67,500 by end of July stays a long shot Kalshi ladder
- The ladder prices only 39% odds on Bitcoin's trimmed mean exceeding $67,500 by 11:59 PM ET on July 31, with just 6% above $70,000.
- News of Bitcoin trading near $65,000 amid geopolitical stress and ETF outflows is consistent with the ladder's below-$67,500 central tendency.
- Companion ladder CM-EVT-4WQMN6PQC2 prices near zero probability of BTC falling below $42,500 by July 31, so the floor is well-defined; the contest is in the $65K-$67.5K zone.
- Companion ladder CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99 prices only 3-13% on Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by September 1, showing the geopolitical discount extends well beyond the immediate FOMC week.
- Bitcoin above $67.5K by end of July stays a long shot Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder shows only 25% odds of BTC trimmed mean exceeding $67,500 by July 31, with 6% above $70,000, the distribution is heavily left-skewed from current $64K levels.
- Bitcoin holding near $64,400 is consistent with a market that sees limited upside catalyst before month-end.
- The year-end Kalshi contract prices only 30% odds of Bitcoin hitting a minimum price of $1 on January 1, 2027, context suggests year-end bull case remains subdued.
- The longer-dated Kalshi ladder on BTC above $100K by year-end sits at 13%, consistent with a market pricing consolidation rather than a breakout.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jul31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jul31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jul31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-R55TT711T7",
"slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jul31",
"question": "BTC trimmed mean by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-markets",
"july-2026",
"price-prediction",
"volatility-bet"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 995129,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF BRTI price for BTC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}