Bitcoin trimmed mean price, June 30, 2026 [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $75,000 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $2.4K | $21K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $77,500 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $523 | $7.3K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $80,000 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $200 | $2.4K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $82,500 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $2 | $1.7K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $85,000 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $67 | $349 | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $87,500 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $69 | $358 | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $90,000 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $41 | $415 | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $92,500 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $52 | $130 | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever above $
75000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" sources (2) · single authority
- CF Benchmarks source of record venue-listed
- CF BRTI price for BTC from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $77500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $80000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $82500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $85000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $90000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $92500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (8 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- BTC above $75K by June 30 sits at near-zero pricing Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices less than 1% at every strike from $75K to $92.5K for today's BTC trimmed mean, implying current price well below $75K.
- Bitcoin breaking the 200-week moving average is consistent with the near-zero probability across the entire upside ladder for June 30.
- The year-end Kalshi contract at 15% above $100K (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9) shows the market sees the near-term damage as a longer-horizon drag.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks trimmed mean at 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; any intraday recovery above $75K would be a significant surprise at current pricing.
- Bitcoin above $75K by June 30 priced nearly fully out Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices BTC trimmed mean above $75,000 by June 30 at just 1% across all strikes from $75K to $92.5K.
- Reports of 50,000 BTC moving to exchanges and deepening short-term holder losses are consistent with the market's near-zero probability of a sharp June recovery.
- A companion Kalshi binary contract prices Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 at 20%, reflecting broader multi-month skepticism beyond the immediate June expiry.
- Ladder resolves via CF Benchmarks trimmed mean; with one day to expiry on June 30, the sub-1% pricing across all strikes above $75K reflects near-certain resolution below that level.
- BTC above $75K by June 30 priced near zero on capitulation signals Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies BTC trimmed mean stays well below $75K by June 30: all strikes from $75K to $92.5K priced at just 1%.
- Bitcoin near $60,100 with 50,000 BTC moved at a loss is fully consistent with the market pricing no recovery to prior highs by month-end.
- Dedicated Kalshi binary on the Bitcoin trimmed mean price for June 30 is priced at just 2%, reinforcing the sub-$75K consensus.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks trimmed mean calculation on June 30; deadline is tomorrow, making this effectively a near-zero-movement window.
- Bitcoin above $75K by June 30 breaks away to near-zero Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices only 8% above $75,000 by June 30, with the market-implied range sitting below $75K given Bitcoin trading near $58,000-$60,000.
- The $58,000 spot print following the PCE release is consistent with a market that already priced a sub-$75K outcome as the base case, not an upside scenario.
- The companion Kalshi contract on Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 prices at 26%, with Bitcoin well behind gold year-to-date given the inflation backdrop.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks trimmed-mean methodology; the ladder shows near-zero probability at $77,500 and above, confirming the market treats any recovery to $75K+ as a low-probability event before month-end.
- Bitcoin above $75K by June 30 priced as a remote tail Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi BTC ladder prices only 8% above $75,000 by June 30, with the market-implied range sitting below $75,000, the current $65K spot level is well inside consensus.
- Bitcoin's rally to $65K on Iran talk optimism is consistent with current market-implied levels; the ladder does not show any repricing toward the $75K strike.
- The $75K level by month-end would require roughly a 15% move from current spot in under 10 days, the 8% probability reflects the ladder's skepticism of that acceleration.
- The longer-dated Kalshi contract on Bitcoin below $40,000 by January 1, 2027 prices at 32%, framing the distribution as a wide range with no clear directional conviction by year-end.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jun30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jun30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jun30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3MXSH7KHK5",
"slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jun30",
"question": "Bitcoin trimmed mean price, June 30, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-markets",
"june-2026",
"price-prediction",
"short-term-crypto"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 33200,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF BRTI price for BTC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}