Bitcoin maximum price, December 31, 2026 [ resolves 2027-01-31 (209D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 18.0% | $491 | $179K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $110,000 | 2027-01-31 | 15.0% | $17 | $72K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $120,000 | 2027-01-31 | 10.0% | $46 | $47K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $130,000 | 2027-01-31 | 6.0% | $6 | $23K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $140,000 | 2027-01-31 | 6.0% | $0 | $14K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2027-01-31 | 4.0% | $12 | $14K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $200,000 | 2027-01-31 | 4.0% | — | $29K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $99999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- CF Benchmarks source of record venue-listed
- CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index from rules text · editorial
- BRTI from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end wavers in thin pricing Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31 at only 12%, with probability collapsing further at higher strikes.
- A rebound to $64K after the AI-driven selloff leaves Bitcoin well below the $100K threshold, consistent with the market's skeptical distribution.
- The ladder shows near-zero probability above $110K (7%), implying the market sees $100K as a hard ceiling for the year-end scenario.
- Resolves at December 31, 2026 close via the specified Bitcoin price source in the contract.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end wavers below 15 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices only 14% on Bitcoin above $100,000 by December 31, 2026, with 10% above $110K and 7% above $120K; trading volume rose 170x day over day.
- Bitcoin trading near $62,000 after the ceasefire breakdown puts the $100K target roughly 60% above spot, and the ladder's sub-15% pricing reflects that distance.
- Standard Chartered's maintained $100K target (Story 32) sits far outside the current Kalshi consensus, illustrating the gap between sell-side forecasts and prediction-market capital.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks end-of-day price on December 31, 2026; the companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99) prices a separate 'cross $100K at any point' question at only 13%.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end sits at heavy discount Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices only 13% on Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by December 31 2026, with rapid decay above: 9% at $110K, 7% at $120K.
- Bitcoin recovering to $63,000 while Iran strikes escalate is consistent with the market shrugging off geopolitical risk, but the $100K ladder shows no breakout conviction.
- Spot price near $63K implies roughly 59% upside needed to hit $100K; the 13% probability reflects how far the current bear market has compressed expectations.
- Resolves via Kalshi using CF Benchmarks price at December 31 2026; the steep discount above $110K shows the market treats $100K as a tail, not a base case.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end holds at deep discount despite rebound Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices only 14% on Bitcoin exceeding $99,999 by December 31, 2026, with the implied modal range sitting below $100K.
- The $62K spot surge follows the payroll miss repricing Fed expectations, but year-end prediction market pricing has not shifted to a bull-case consensus.
- The ladder's tail shows 10% above $110K and 8% above $120K, indicating the market assigns very low probability to a continuation into prior all-time-high territory.
- Resolves via the Kalshi settlement price for Bitcoin on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end consensus fractures Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices only 15% odds Bitcoin clears $100K by Dec 31, 2026, with implied range well below $100K.
- Bitcoin trading below $60K on ETF outflows and bearish macro is consistent with the market's low-probability recovery pricing.
- Trading volume on the Kalshi Bitcoin year-end ladder surged 44x day over day, signaling sharp fresh attention to the downside scenario.
- The Jun 30 BTC trimmed-mean Kalshi contract at 1% above $75K confirms the near-term picture aligns with the bearish longer-horizon read.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcmaxy-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
"slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
"question": "Bitcoin maximum price, December 31, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-markets",
"price-prediction",
"2026-resolution",
"btc-usd"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 377694,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "BRTI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}