Bitcoin maximum price, December 31, 2026 [ resolves 2027-01-31 (180D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 13.0% | $302 | $162K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $110,000 | 2027-01-31 | 7.0% | $16 | $38K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $120,000 | 2027-01-31 | 5.0% | $10 | $26K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $130,000 | 2027-01-31 | 5.0% | — | $21K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $140,000 | 2027-01-31 | 4.0% | — | $11K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2027-01-31 | 4.0% | — | $16K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $200,000 | 2027-01-31 | 3.0% | $0 | $24K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $99999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
recent wire items
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays below 25 percent odds Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31 at 26%, with the $110K tier collapsing to 10% and higher strikes in low single digits.
- The hot CPI print and surge in rate hike expectations are consistent with current pricing showing Bitcoin well under the $100K threshold.
- The companion Kalshi contract on a Bitcoin minimum price by January 1, 2027 (CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9) sits at 5%, suggesting material downside is also priced.
- From spot near $81K, a 23%-plus rally by December 31 is needed to breach $100K; the ladder implies that is a minority outcome at current macro conditions.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays below 30% odds Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices only 27% probability that Bitcoin exceeds $100,000 by December 31, 2026, with 10% above $110,000 and 7% above $120,000.
- Bitcoin's drop below $82,000 on hot core CPI is directionally consistent with the ladder's sub-30% odds on a year-end breakout above $100,000.
- The Kalshi contract on a Fed cut before 2027 (CM-EVT-X2TT2M9D02) at 6% reinforces the macro headwind; a sustained Bitcoin rally to $100K would likely require monetary easing.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks price data at December 31, 2026 market close; the current spot price near $81,000 would require roughly a 23% rally to hit the $100K strike.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays below 50 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31 at 32%, with only 12% above $110K and 7% above $120K.
- The whale movement of $378 million in long-dormant BTC is drawing attention, trading volume on this ladder surged 200x day over day, though current price near $83,000-$84,000 leaves a large gap to the $100K threshold.
- The sharp dropoff from 32% above $100K to 12% above $110K indicates the market sees $100K as a plausible ceiling rather than a floor if Bitcoin does break out.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks pricing on December 31, 2026; the dormant whale's sell pressure, if realized, could weigh on the price trajectory needed to resolve YES.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays below 50% Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $99,999.99 by December 31, 2026 at 45%, just below an even chance.
- CME expanding crypto derivatives suite with new futures products is a structural positive for market access, consistent with the near-50% pricing of a six-figure Bitcoin.
- Above $110,000 the probability drops to 26%, and above $120,000 to 16%, showing the distribution skews but tails off sharply beyond $110K.
- Bitcoin trading near $87,000 as of today means a move to $100K requires roughly a 15% gain in about three months, which the market treats as a coin-flip.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays a long shot at 33% Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31, 2026 at 33%, with only 23% above $110K and 17% above $120K.
- Trading volume on the Bitcoin year-end price ladder surged 4,492% day-over-day, consistent with the $81K breakout drawing fresh attention to upside price targets.
- The distribution shows a sharp drop above $100K, suggesting the market views current levels as a bounce rather than the start of a sustained run to six figures.
- The Kalshi contract on Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 sits at only 9%, meaning the rally is not being attributed to a policy catalyst.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcmaxy-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
"slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
"question": "Bitcoin maximum price, December 31, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-markets",
"price-prediction",
"2026-resolution",
"btc-usd"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 297449,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "BRTI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}