Bitcoin maximum price, December 31, 2026 [ resolves 2027-01-31 (180D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 13.0% | $302 | $162K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $110,000 | 2027-01-31 | 7.0% | $16 | $38K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $120,000 | 2027-01-31 | 5.0% | $10 | $26K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $130,000 | 2027-01-31 | 5.0% | — | $21K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $140,000 | 2027-01-31 | 4.0% | — | $11K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2027-01-31 | 4.0% | — | $16K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $200,000 | 2027-01-31 | 3.0% | $0 | $24K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $99999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
recent wire items
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays a long shot at 33% Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31, 2026 at 33%, with only 23% above $110K and 17% above $120K.
- Trading volume on the Bitcoin year-end price ladder surged 4,492% day-over-day, consistent with the $81K breakout drawing fresh attention to upside price targets.
- The distribution shows a sharp drop above $100K, suggesting the market views current levels as a bounce rather than the start of a sustained run to six figures.
- The Kalshi contract on Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 sits at only 9%, meaning the rally is not being attributed to a policy catalyst.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays below 25 percent Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder puts only 28% probability on Bitcoin closing above $100,000 by December 31, 2026, even as spot prices approach $72,000.
- Trading volume on this contract rose 3,180x day over day, signaling a sharp surge in fresh market attention following the Bitcoin price rally and Trump crypto push.
- At current spot near $72,000, reaching $100,000 implies roughly a 40% further gain; the 28% odds reflect meaningful but not dominant conviction.
- The $110,000 strike sits at only 17%, showing the distribution compresses quickly above the $100K threshold.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays a long shot Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices only 10% on Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by December 31, 2026, with probability falling further to 7% at $110K and below 5% beyond that.
- The news narrative of low volatility and traders fleeing Bitcoin for higher-beta plays is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing of a major year-end rally.
- Companion contracts at 2-3% on Bitcoin above $200K-$250K by 2027 confirm the market sees the current $65K range as closer to a ceiling than a launchpad.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks pricing at the defined date and time; settlement depends on the specific benchmark methodology used.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays a long shot Kalshi ladder
- The ladder prices only 12% odds on Bitcoin exceeding $100K by December 31, 2026, with probability falling to 7% above $110K and 4% above $150K.
- Arthur Hayes's $1M thesis is a dramatic outlier versus the ladder's distribution, which places the mode well below $100K, the market is not endorsing the bull case.
- BTC is quoted in price data at approximately $64K today, consistent with the ladder's implied range anchored below $100K.
- Kalshi's longer-dated contract (CM-EVT-3CQP3GL0Y1) puts just 2% on Bitcoin above $250K by 2027, showing the extreme bull scenario is priced as a near-impossibility across timeframes.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end wavers in thin pricing Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31 at only 12%, with probability collapsing further at higher strikes.
- A rebound to $64K after the AI-driven selloff leaves Bitcoin well below the $100K threshold, consistent with the market's skeptical distribution.
- The ladder shows near-zero probability above $110K (7%), implying the market sees $100K as a hard ceiling for the year-end scenario.
- Resolves at December 31, 2026 close via the specified Bitcoin price source in the contract.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcmaxy-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
"slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
"question": "Bitcoin maximum price, December 31, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-markets",
"price-prediction",
"2026-resolution",
"btc-usd"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 297449,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "BRTI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}