Bitcoin trimmed mean price, June 30, 2026 [ resolved 2026-07-08 ]
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $70000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $52,500 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $638 | $9.6K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $55,000 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $903 | $36K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $57,500 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $3.1K | $71K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $60,000 | 2026-07-08 | 99.0% | — | $160K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $62,500 | 2026-07-08 | 99.0% | — | $61K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $65,000 | 2026-07-08 | 99.0% | — | $50K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $67,500 | 2026-07-08 | 99.0% | — | $24K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $70,000 | 2026-07-08 | 99.0% | — | $30K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026 is ever below $70000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" sources (2) · single authority
- CF Benchmarks source of record venue-listed
- CF BRTI price for BTC from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $70000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 99% |
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $67500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 99% |
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $65000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 99% |
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 99% |
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $60000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 99% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $57500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $55000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (8 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- BTC end-June floor pricing wavers below $57.5K implied range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi's BTC ladder prices 27% on a trimmed mean below $57,500 and 14% below $55,000 by June 30, with the implied floor near $55-57.5K.
- Bitcoin's drop below $64K aligns with the ladder's bearish tail, with traders loading put options as low as $52,000 per CoinDesk.
- The above-$75K contract (CM-EVT-CM-EVT-3MXSH7KHK5) prices only 8%, confirming the market sees no recovery to prior highs this month.
- Resolution uses trimmed-mean methodology at 11:59 PM ET on June 30; extreme intraday wicks would not determine outcome.
- Bitcoin trimmed mean above $60K by June 30 commands near certainty Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi's ladder shows 99% probability BTC trimmed mean stays above $60,000 by June 30, with the distribution implying a range near $62,500-$65,000.
- Bitcoin trading near $63,600 is fully consistent with the ladder; the CME-CFTC legal dispute is a regulatory headline that the current price level absorbs without a downside pricing shift.
- The year-end ladder (CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9) shows only 32% probability BTC falls below $40,000 by January 1, 2027, anchoring a broadly constructive medium-term pricing consensus.
- Resolves via the Kalshi trimmed mean calculation at 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; the trimmed mean methodology, not spot price, is the settlement metric.
- BTC June 30 trimmed mean pricing centered in 62500 to 65000 band Kalshi ladder
- BTC June 30 trimmed mean ladder implies a central range of $62,500-$65,000: 61% above $62,500 but only 39% above $60,000 on the downside.
- Bitcoin trading near $60,000 amid Iran-triggered risk-off and $1.72B weekly ETF outflows sits at the lower tail of the distribution, where the market prices 39% probability of the trimmed mean breaching $60,000.
- The upside ladder prices only 25% above $75,000 by June 30, showing the market sees limited near-term recovery potential given the macro and geopolitical headwinds.
- Resolves via Coingecko trimmed mean methodology; the 'trimmed mean' calculation excludes outlier exchange prices, so flash crashes on thin venues would not distort settlement.
- BTC end-of-June floor consensus clusters near $60K-$62.5K Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi's BTC ladder implies market consensus near $60,000-$62,500, with 61% below $62,500 but only 39% below $60,000 by June 30.
- Bitcoin trading near $58,000-$61,300 is consistent with the 39% below-$60K reading, placing spot price at the lower edge of the distribution.
- The above-$75,000 ladder (CM-EVT-3MXSH7KHK5) prices only 25% above $75,000 by June 30, confirming the market sees little near-term recovery runway.
- Resolves via CoinGecko trimmed mean; the gap between current spot near $58K-$61K and the 39% below-$60K strike suggests traders expect some mean-reversion before month-end.
- BTC below $62.5K by June 30 consensus firms near even Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies BTC trimmed mean near $62.5K by June 30: 61% below $62.5K, 39% below $60K.
- Bitcoin near $63.5K is at the market-implied distribution midpoint; current spot is essentially at-the-money relative to the ladder.
- The above-$75K ladder (Story 36 candidate) prices only 25% probability, pointing to a heavily right-skewed distribution against a recovery.
- Resolves via trimmed mean price calculation at 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; the settlement source is the Kalshi staff methodology.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P48V448T55",
"slug": "kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30",
"question": "Bitcoin trimmed mean price, June 30, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-volatility",
"june-2026",
"price-floor",
"short-term-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 442478,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF BRTI price for BTC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}