Bitcoin minimum price, January 1, 2027 [ resolves 2027-01-31 (209D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $40,000 | 2027-01-31 | 32.0% | $1.5K | $184K | A | KXBTCMINY-27….00 | ||
| ≤ $45,000 | 2027-01-31 | 40.0% | $2.9K | $187K | A | KXBTCMINY-27….00 | ||
| ≤ $50,000 | 2027-01-31 | 54.0% | $3.0K | $351K | A | KXBTCMINY-27….00 | ||
| ≤ $55,000 | 2027-01-31 | 67.0% | $6.3K | $385K | A | KXBTCMINY-27….00 | ||
| ≤ $60,000 | 2027-01-31 | 99.0% | — | $1.18M | A | KXBTCMINY-27….00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $60000.00 starting Jan 1, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- CF Benchmarks source of record venue-listed
- CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Bitcoin be below $60000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET? | kalshi | 2027-01-31 | 99% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Bitcoin floor at $60K by year-end fractures toward lower range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices 31% on Bitcoin holding a minimum price above the contract's floor level through January 1, 2027, per CF Benchmarks resolution.
- Bitcoin at roughly $63,000 with the $60K test cited in news is consistent with growing downside concern, and the 31% Kalshi reading reflects that fragility.
- Oil shock and risk-off from the Iran conflict are identified in the news as the proximate catalyst; the market is absorbing the geopolitical stress at a moderate discount.
- Companion contract CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9 prices only 15% on Bitcoin exceeding $100K by December 31, 2026, with trading volume up over 107,000% day-over-day, flagging explosive fresh attention on the downside scenario.
- Bitcoin bear bottom narrative wavers at 32 percent floor pricing Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices 32% on Bitcoin's minimum price staying above the contract's threshold through January 1 2027, implying meaningful downside tail risk remains.
- On-chain bottom signals from Glassnode are not yet reflected as a high-probability outcome; prediction markets assign a 68% chance of further drawdown to a new low.
- Bitcoin trading near $63,000 with the 2026 $100K ladder at just 13% (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9) frames the asset as range-bound with downside risk outweighing upside conviction.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks tracking the realized minimum price through the settlement date; any fresh geopolitical shock to risk assets could compress the floor probability further.
- Bitcoin minimum price above $60K by January 2027 holds below even odds Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices 34% on Bitcoin's minimum price staying above its January 1, 2027 strike, resolving via CF Benchmarks.
- Bitcoin trading near $60,000 while the market prices only 34% on holding above that level reflects the market's view that further downside tests are more likely than not.
- The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin outperforming both gold and the S&P 500 by end of 2026 sits at 16%, suggesting cross-market skepticism about a BTC recovery.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks minimum price calculation; the contract tracks the floor, so any brief dip below the strike level would resolve it negatively.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcminy-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcminy-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcminy-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
"slug": "kxbtcminy-27jan01",
"question": "Bitcoin minimum price, January 1, 2027",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-trading",
"price-floor",
"2026-resolution",
"volatility-bet"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2288597,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}