Bitcoin minimum price, January 1, 2027 [ resolves 2027-01-31 (180D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $40,000 | 2027-01-31 | 23.0% | $854 | $199K | A | KXBTCMINY-27….00 | ||
| ≤ $45,000 | 2027-01-31 | 36.0% | $2.7K | $239K | A | KXBTCMINY-27….00 | ||
| ≤ $50,000 | 2027-01-31 | 45.0% | $1.6K | $429K | A | KXBTCMINY-27….00 | ||
| ≤ $55,000 | 2027-01-31 | 54.0% | $9.6K | $528K | A | KXBTCMINY-27….00 | ||
| ≤ $60,000 | 2027-01-31 | 99.0% | — | $1.18M | A | KXBTCMINY-27….00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $60000.00 starting Jan 1, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Bitcoin be below $60000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Bitcoin minimum price by January 2027 stays a long shot at $80K floor Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices only a 5% probability on the Bitcoin minimum price contract resolving above a specified floor by January 1, 2027; trading volume rose 3,816% day over day.
- Bitcoin's brief dip below $80,000 and recovery to near $82,000 drew heavy fresh attention to this contract, with the volume surge confirming the price level is live as a market focus.
- The 7% Kalshi probability on Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 suggests markets see limited policy tailwind for a sustained BTC price recovery.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks pricing; the volume spike is the operative signal here, as it marks the $80K level as a focal point for prediction market participants tracking the floor.
- Bitcoin minimum price above $80K by year-end stays a long shot Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices only 5% odds that Bitcoin's minimum price stays at or above $80,000 through January 1, 2027, resolving via CF Benchmarks, with trading volume up 3,816% day-over-day.
- Bitcoin's dip below $80,000 this week is consistent with Kalshi's near-zero probability of the price floor holding at that level through year-end.
- The sharp volume surge on this contract signals fresh attention to the downside scenario following the week's price action and macro equity weakness.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-3CQP3GL0Y1) prices only 2% on Bitcoin above $250,000 by 2027, confirming the market sees no near-term upside breakout either.
- Bitcoin minimum price floors below $100K heading into 2027 Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi contract on Bitcoin's minimum price reaching its strike level by January 1, 2027 sits at just 6%, a deep long shot.
- Three consecutive rejections at 87,000 dollars and 172 million dollars in leveraged liquidations over 24 hours are consistent with a market unwilling to price in a strong BTC year-end rally.
- Bitcoin is currently roughly 32% below its all-time high of 126,000 dollars set approximately one year ago, contextualizing the distance to any bullish resolution scenario.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks on January 1, 2027; the reference rate methodology and fixing time are key settlement variables.
- Bitcoin minimum price by January 2027 holds under 25% odds Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices only 8% odds on Bitcoin's minimum price hitting its contract threshold by January 1, 2027.
- Bitcoin rallying above $81,000 on CFTC regulatory filing news is bullish for near-term price action, but the 8% on the minimum-price threshold suggests the market still sees meaningful downside risk over the next three months.
- A companion Kalshi contract on Bitcoin above $250,000 by 2027 sits at just 1%, confirming the market sees the current $80K level as a mid-range, not a launchpad for extreme upside.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks pricing on January 1, 2027; the minimum price mechanic means a single sharp drawdown before year-end could determine the outcome regardless of current levels.
- Bitcoin floor at $60K by year-end fractures toward lower range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices 31% on Bitcoin holding a minimum price above the contract's floor level through January 1, 2027, per CF Benchmarks resolution.
- Bitcoin at roughly $63,000 with the $60K test cited in news is consistent with growing downside concern, and the 31% Kalshi reading reflects that fragility.
- Oil shock and risk-off from the Iran conflict are identified in the news as the proximate catalyst; the market is absorbing the geopolitical stress at a moderate discount.
- Companion contract CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9 prices only 15% on Bitcoin exceeding $100K by December 31, 2026, with trading volume up over 107,000% day-over-day, flagging explosive fresh attention on the downside scenario.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcminy-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcminy-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcminy-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
"slug": "kxbtcminy-27jan01",
"question": "Bitcoin minimum price, January 1, 2027",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-trading",
"price-floor",
"2026-resolution",
"volatility-bet"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2577801,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}