Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [B] reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $25 | $24K | B | KXBTCRESERVE…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump has issued an executive order or his Administration takes an executive action (including signing a bill into law) creating a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” “National Bitcoin Reserve,” or any other formal government-held stockpile of Bitcoin after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For example, if the U.S. government established a program or body that is equivalent to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for Bitcoin, or the United States Bullion Depository for Bitcoin, or if Bitcoin was held in the reserves of the U.S. Department of the Treasury like its foreign exchange and SDR holdings, then the Payout Criterion would be fulfilled. This would not include merely Bitcoin confiscated pursuant to criminal or civil enforcement proceedings.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The New York Times" sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- Trump National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 stays a long shot on Kalshi Kalshi 5%
- Kalshi prices a 5% chance Trump formally creates a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026, keeping the claim a long shot despite the government transfer.
- The Coinbase Prime movement is a custody transfer, not a confirmed sale or reserve establishment; the low Kalshi probability is consistent with no policy announcement.
- A companion Polymarket contract on the US establishing a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027 sits at 3%, slightly below the Kalshi read but directionally aligned.
- Resolution via The New York Times as the named source on Kalshi; a formal executive or legislative action establishing the reserve is the qualifying trigger.
- Trump National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 stays a near-certain long shot Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi prices only 3% that Trump creates a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026.
- The government crypto transfer drew on-chain attention but the market treats it as routine custody, not a policy signal toward a reserve.
- Bitcoin was simultaneously falling below $84,000 on oil and geopolitical pressures, adding macro headwinds inconsistent with a reserve announcement.
- Resolves via The New York Times reporting confirmation of a formal National Bitcoin Reserve creation in 2026.
- National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 stays a distant long shot Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi prices only 3% odds on Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026, resolving via The New York Times.
- Bitcoin's drop below $84,000 on geopolitical risk and ETF outflows is consistent with a market not pricing any near-term US government Bitcoin accumulation catalyst.
- Separately, Kalshi's CM-EVT-5Z1MKFCSL8 prices only 4% on a Fed emergency meeting in 2026, suggesting markets see macro stress as elevated but not crisis-level.
- Resolves via New York Times confirmation of an official National Bitcoin Reserve establishment by year-end 2026.
- National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 stays a long shot on Kalshi Kalshi 5%
- The Kalshi contract on Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 sits at 5%.
- FinCEN's withdrawal of the private wallet reporting rule is a pro-crypto regulatory move, but the market does not treat it as a stepping stone toward a formal Bitcoin Reserve, the contract is near unchanged.
- A companion Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 (CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744) prices at 5%, suggesting the market sees incremental deregulation as distinct from landmark crypto legislation.
- Resolves via The New York Times per Kalshi contract terms; an executive order or legislation formally establishing a reserve would be required.
- National Bitcoin Reserve odds remain a long shot at 4% Kalshi 4%
- Kalshi prices just 4% on Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026, treating the committee passage as far short of a done deal.
- The bitcoin reserve bill clearing committee is the most advanced this type of legislation has been, yet the Kalshi contract is unmoved at 4%, suggesting markets see the full passage path as very unlikely.
- Bitcoin's rally to near $87,000 is a market price move in the spot asset; the prediction market contract specifically tracks whether Trump formally creates a reserve, a higher legal bar.
- Resolution is via The New York Times as the named source, meaning the contract settles on confirmed published reporting of a formal executive or legislative creation, not just committee action.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcreserve-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcreserve-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcreserve-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9",
"slug": "kxbtcreserve-27",
"question": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-cryptocurrency",
"bitcoin-policy",
"us-treasury",
"2027-resolution",
"crypto-regulation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24271,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 73,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "White House",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}