Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | $159 | $28K | B | KXBTCRESERVE…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump has issued an executive order or his Administration takes an executive action (including signing a bill into law) creating a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” “National Bitcoin Reserve,” or any other formal government-held stockpile of Bitcoin after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For example, if the U.S. government established a program or body that is equivalent to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for Bitcoin, or the United States Bullion Depository for Bitcoin, or if Bitcoin was held in the reserves of the U.S. Department of the Treasury like its foreign exchange and SDR holdings, then the Payout Criterion would be fulfilled. This would not include merely Bitcoin confiscated pursuant to criminal or civil enforcement proceedings.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The New York Times" sources (2) · single authority
- The New York Times venue-listed
- White House source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- National Bitcoin Reserve creation skepticism holds at low odds Kalshi 13%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices 13% on Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027, resolving via The New York Times.
- Growing political embrace of crypto globally has not shifted the market's skepticism: 87% implied probability that no formal US Bitcoin reserve is established this year.
- A companion Kalshi contract on crypto market structure legislation becoming law by 2027 sits at 39%, suggesting markets see regulatory framework as more likely than a direct sovereign reserve.
- Resolution requires New York Times confirmation of an official reserve creation; Bitcoin's 30% year-to-date decline and the current geopolitical risk environment are consistent with the low reserve probability.
- National Bitcoin Reserve creation before 2027 holds at long odds Kalshi 14%
- Kalshi prices only a 14% probability that Trump formally creates a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027, resolving via The New York Times.
- Despite executive order reporting, the market assigns low probability to formal reserve creation, consistent with a concurrent story that the initiative has stalled in an interdepartmental dispute between Treasury and Commerce.
- Bitcoin dropped below $73,000 amid Iran-US military escalation (Story 32), adding geopolitical risk-off pressure to an already uncertain crypto policy environment.
- Kalshi prices only a 10% chance Trump attempts to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (CM-EVT-TMHG8WLK69), suggesting the market does not see broader institutional disruption as the base case.
- National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027 consensus wavers near low odds Kalshi 13%
- Kalshi prediction market prices only a 13% probability that Trump creates a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027.
- The Treasury-Commerce turf war reported today is consistent with Kalshi's low odds, showing implementation barriers the executive order alone could not resolve.
- A companion Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 sits at 46%, suggesting broader crypto legislation may advance even as the reserve stalls.
- Kalshi resolves via New York Times reporting; formal establishment of the reserve, not just an executive order reaffirmation, is the settlement standard.
- National Bitcoin Reserve by year-end wavers at low consensus Kalshi 23%
- Kalshi prices only 23% odds that Trump formally creates a National Bitcoin Reserve by December 31, 2026, resolving via The New York Times.
- Bessent's 'deliberate speed' framing is consistent with below-50% pricing: rhetoric signals intent but market assigns low probability to full execution this year.
- Legislative dependency on the CLARITY Act passing the Senate adds a second hurdle, compressing the timeline probability further.
- Bitcoin spot near $62K-$63K (per concurrent selloff news) provides a market-price backdrop suggesting macro and geopolitical pressures may delay institutional crypto policy action.
- National Bitcoin Reserve by year-end wavers below one-in-four pricing Kalshi 23%
- Kalshi puts only 23% on Trump formally creating a National Bitcoin Reserve by December 31, 2026, despite Treasury signaling progress.
- The market is not treating Treasury commentary as a near-term commitment, pricing the reserve as more likely to miss the year-end deadline.
- The CLARITY Act's passage by year-end is priced at 58% on Polymarket (CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744), suggesting legislative infrastructure is seen as more likely than the reserve itself.
- Kalshi resolves via The New York Times confirmation of a signed executive or legislative action creating the reserve; signaling and progress reports alone do not resolve the contract.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcreserve-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcreserve-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcreserve-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9",
"slug": "kxbtcreserve-27",
"question": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-bitcoin-policy",
"cryptocurrency-regulation",
"us-treasury-reserves",
"2027-resolution",
"political-commitment"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 27805,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 77,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "White House",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}