Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 26.4% | $113 | $49K | A | KXBTCVSGOLD-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CoinGecko | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The performance of gold will be determined by using ICE Data Service's prices provided by a variety of financial institutions. The performance of Bitcoin will be determined by using the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CoinGecko" sources (14) · single authority
- CoinGecko venue-listed
- Financial Times venue-listed
- Yahoo Finance venue-listed
- MarketWatch venue-listed
- CoinDesk venue-listed
- CNBC venue-listed
- CF Benchmarks venue-listed
- Bloomberg Terminal venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Coinbase venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- ICE Data Service from rules text · editorial
- CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 consensus wavers at one-in-four Kalshi 26%
- Kalshi prices a 26% chance Bitcoin outperforms gold over full-year 2026, despite Fink's bullish commentary.
- Fink's stabilization narrative is not reflected in a market that prices Bitcoin beating gold at barely one-in-four odds.
- A separate Kalshi contract prices only 14% on Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again, anchoring the modest outperformance odds.
- Kalshi contract resolves via CoinGecko price data; full-year return comparison between Bitcoin and gold spot price determines settlement.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcvsgold-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcvsgold-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcvsgold-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FMPY92KRH8",
"slug": "kxbtcvsgold-26",
"question": "Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"bitcoin-vs-gold",
"asset-performance",
"cryptocurrency",
"commodities",
"2026-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 48857,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CoinGecko",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CoinGecko",
"url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Financial Times",
"url": "https://www.ft.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Yahoo Finance",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MarketWatch",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CoinDesk",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Coinbase",
"url": "https://investor.coinbase.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ICE Data Service",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}