CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Who will serve in Burnham's Cabinet in July 2026? [ resolved 2026-08-01 ]

Will Government of the UK report that Shabana Mahmood is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham?

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 29 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
John Healey 2026-07-21 100.0%
$1.8K
C KXBURNHAMJUL…HEA
Ed Miliband 2026-07-21 100.0%
$96
C KXBURNHAMJUL…MIL
Louise Haigh 2026-07-21 100.0%
$236
C KXBURNHAMJUL…HAI
Yvette Cooper 2026-07-21 100.0%
$104
C KXBURNHAMJUL…COO
Angela Rayner 2026-07-21 100.0%
$663
C KXBURNHAMJUL…RAY
Jonathan Reynolds 2026-07-21 100.0%
$421
C KXBURNHAMJUL…REY
Pat McFadden 2026-07-21 100.0%
$178
C KXBURNHAMJUL…MCF
Alan Campbell 2026-07-21 100.0%
$310
C KXBURNHAMJUL…CAM
Bridget Phillipson 2026-07-21 100.0%
$402
C KXBURNHAMJUL…PHI
Lisa Nandy 2026-07-21 100.0%
$132
C KXBURNHAMJUL…NAN
Wes Streeting 2026-07-21 100.0%
$976
C KXBURNHAMJUL…STR
Heidi Alexander 2026-07-21 100.0%
$43
C KXBURNHAMJUL…ALE
Shabana Mahmood 2026-07-21 100.0%
$54
C KXBURNHAMJUL…MAH
David Lammy 2026-08-01 0.0%
$0 $17
C KXBURNHAMJUL…LAM
Rachel Reeves 2026-08-01 0.0%
$34
C KXBURNHAMJUL…REE
Liz Kendall 2026-08-01 0.0%
$0 $19
C KXBURNHAMJUL…KEN
Ian Murray 2026-08-01 0.0%
$8
C KXBURNHAMJUL…MUR
Hilary Benn 2026-08-01 0.0%
$1
C KXBURNHAMJUL…BEN
Jo Stevens 2026-08-01 0.0%
$0 $1
C KXBURNHAMJUL…STE
Jacqui Smith 2026-08-01 0.0%
$25
C KXBURNHAMJUL…SMI
James Murray 2026-08-01 0.0%
$8
C KXBURNHAMJUL…MUR
Dan Jarvis 2026-08-01 0.0%
$6
C KXBURNHAMJUL…JAR
Catherine West 2026-08-01 0.0%
$1
C KXBURNHAMJUL…WES
Patrick Vallance 2026-08-01 0.0%
$2
C KXBURNHAMJUL…VAL
Keir Starmer 2026-08-01 0.0%
$0
C KXBURNHAMJUL…STA
Jess Phillips 2026-08-01 0.0%
$14
C KXBURNHAMJUL…PHI
Darren Jones 2026-08-01 0.0%
$48
C KXBURNHAMJUL…JON
Peter Kyle 2026-08-01 0.0%
$3
C KXBURNHAMJUL…KYL
Steve Reed 2026-08-01 0.0%
$0 $9
C KXBURNHAMJUL…REE
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff The Washington Post not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 29 markets · share this text
If Shabana Mahmood is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Continued service qualifies only if an official UK Government source identifies the listed individual as a Cabinet minister under Burnham before Aug 1, 2026. Temporary/caretaker service and non-Cabinet roles, including ministers who merely attend Cabinet, do not qualify.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post"
sources (23)
The Washington Post venue-listed Fox News venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed The Guardian venue-listed ABC venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed CBS venue-listed South China Morning Post venue-listed NBC venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed The Verge venue-listed BBC venue-listed Axios venue-listed CNN venue-listed ABC News Australia venue-listed The Information venue-listed Semafor venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed CBC venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Politico venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed official UK Government source from rules text
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Will Government of the UK report that Steve Reed is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Peter Kyle is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Jess Phillips is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Keir Starmer is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Patrick Vallance is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Jo Stevens is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Jacqui Smith is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Ian Murray is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that James Murray is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Dan Jarvis is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Liz Kendall is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Rachel Reeves is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Darren Jones is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Catherine West is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that David Lammy is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Government of the UK report that Hilary Benn is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-08-01 0%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Shabana Mahmood is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Heidi Alexander is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Wes Streeting is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Lisa Nandy is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Bridget Phillipson is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Alan Campbell is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Pat McFadden is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Jonathan Reynolds is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Angela Rayner is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Yvette Cooper is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Louise Haigh is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that Ed Miliband is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
YES Will Government of the UK report that John Healey is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? kalshi 2026-07-21 100%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (29 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxburnhamjul-26aug01/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxburnhamjul-26aug01
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxburnhamjul-26aug01")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KN36F36569",
  "slug": "kxburnhamjul-26aug01",
  "question": "Who will serve in Burnham's Cabinet in July 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "uk-politics",
    "cabinet-positions",
    "government-2026",
    "burnham-administration",
    "political-appointments"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 29,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 5562,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 54,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
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    {
      "name": "The Guardian",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "South China Morning Post",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Verge",
      "url": "https://www.theverge.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
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    },
    {
      "name": "ABC News Australia",
      "url": "http://www.abc.net.au/news/",
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    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://semafor.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBC",
      "url": "https://www.cbc.ca/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official UK Government source",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →