Who will serve in Burnham's Cabinet in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-08 (16D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shabana Mahmood | 2026-08-08 | 99.0% | — | $54 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…MAH | ||
| Yvette Cooper | 2026-08-08 | 99.0% | — | $104 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…COO | ||
| Louise Haigh | 2026-08-08 | 99.0% | — | $236 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…HAI | ||
| Jonathan Reynolds | 2026-08-08 | 99.0% | — | $421 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…REY | ||
| John Healey | 2026-08-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.8K | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…HEA | ||
| Ed Miliband | 2026-08-08 | 98.0% | — | $96 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…MIL | ||
| Angela Rayner | 2026-08-08 | 98.0% | — | $663 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…RAY | ||
| Wes Streeting | 2026-08-08 | 98.0% | — | $976 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…STR | ||
| Lisa Nandy | 2026-08-08 | 98.0% | — | $132 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…NAN | ||
| Alan Campbell | 2026-08-08 | 98.0% | — | $310 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…CAM | ||
| Pat McFadden | 2026-08-08 | 98.0% | — | $178 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…MCF | ||
| Bridget Phillipson | 2026-08-08 | 97.0% | — | $402 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…PHI | ||
| Heidi Alexander | 2026-08-08 | 96.0% | — | $43 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…ALE | ||
| Ian Murray | 2026-08-08 | 41.0% | — | $8 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…MUR | ||
| Jacqui Smith | 2026-08-08 | 11.0% | — | $25 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…SMI | ||
| James Murray | 2026-08-08 | 7.0% | — | $8 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…MUR | ||
| Dan Jarvis | 2026-08-08 | 7.0% | — | $6 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…JAR | ||
| Catherine West | 2026-08-08 | 7.0% | — | $1 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…WES | ||
| Patrick Vallance | 2026-08-08 | 6.0% | — | $2 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…VAL | ||
| Jess Phillips | 2026-08-08 | 5.0% | — | $14 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…PHI | ||
| Keir Starmer | 2026-08-08 | 4.0% | — | $0 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…STA | ||
| David Lammy | 2026-08-08 | 3.0% | $0 | $17 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…LAM | ||
| Liz Kendall | 2026-08-08 | 3.0% | $0 | $19 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…KEN | ||
| Darren Jones | 2026-08-08 | 3.0% | — | $48 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…JON | ||
| Rachel Reeves | 2026-08-08 | 2.0% | — | $34 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…REE | ||
| Steve Reed | 2026-08-08 | 2.0% | $0 | $9 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…REE | ||
| Hilary Benn | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $1 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…BEN | ||
| Jo Stevens | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $0 | $1 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…STE | ||
| Peter Kyle | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $3 | C | KXBURNHAMJUL…KYL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Shabana Mahmood is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Continued service qualifies only if an official UK Government source identifies the listed individual as a Cabinet minister under Burnham before Aug 1, 2026. Temporary/caretaker service and non-Cabinet roles, including ministers who merely attend Cabinet, do not qualify.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (23)
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Guardian venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- South China Morning Post venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Verge venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- ABC News Australia venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- CBC venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- official UK Government source from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Shabana Mahmood is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 99% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Heidi Alexander is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 96% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Wes Streeting is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 98% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Lisa Nandy is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 98% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Bridget Phillipson is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 97% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Alan Campbell is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 98% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Pat McFadden is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 98% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Jonathan Reynolds is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 99% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Angela Rayner is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 98% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Yvette Cooper is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 99% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Louise Haigh is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 99% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that Ed Miliband is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 98% |
| YES | Will Government of the UK report that John Healey is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (13 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxburnhamjul-26aug01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxburnhamjul-26aug01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxburnhamjul-26aug01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KN36F36569",
"slug": "kxburnhamjul-26aug01",
"question": "Who will serve in Burnham's Cabinet in July 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"uk-politics",
"cabinet-positions",
"government-2026",
"burnham-administration",
"political-appointments"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5562,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "South China Morning Post",
"url": "https://www.scmp.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Verge",
"url": "https://www.theverge.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News Australia",
"url": "http://www.abc.net.au/news/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBC",
"url": "https://www.cbc.ca/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official UK Government source",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}