Will two candidates advance from the California 4th Congressional District primary? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 99.0% | — | $12K | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…THO | ||
| Eric Jones · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 90.3% | $781 | $47K | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…JON | ||
| Ray Riehle · Who will win the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 8.0% | $7 | $801 | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…RIE | ||
| Heath Fulkerson · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 0.8% | $1 | $26 | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…FUL | ||
| Sharon Brown · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $0 | $44 | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…BRO | ||
| Mandy Ghusar · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…GHU | ||
| Laurie MacKenzie · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…MAC |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | relevant county clerk or board of elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Mike Thompson advances in the 2026 CA-04 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "relevant county clerk or board of elections" sources (7) · stated precedence rule
- relevant county clerk or board of elections venue-listed
- Attorney General of the United States venue-listed
- relevant city/municipal clerk venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer venue-listed
- the Federal Election Commission venue-listed
- state board of elections or canvassing board venue-listed
- The Source Agencies are venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | kalshi | 2026-11-03 | 99% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxca04primary-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxca04primary-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxca04primary-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3FZF66YJF9",
"slug": "kxca04primary-26",
"question": "Will two candidates advance from the California 4th Congressional District primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"2026-primary",
"house-elections",
"ca-04",
"primary-advancement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 60108,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Attorney General of the United States",
"url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Election Commission",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}