Will a special election be held for California's 14th congressional district before the 2026 general election? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aisha Wahab · Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election? | 2026-08-20 | 100.0% | — | $59K | A | KXCA14SWINNE…WAH | ||
| Melissa Hernandez · Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election? | 2026-11-03 | 6.0% | — | $314 | A | KXCA14SWINNE…HER | ||
| Rakhi Israni Singh · Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election? | 2026-11-03 | 4.0% | — | $2.9K | A | KXCA14SWINNE…SIN | ||
| Victor Aguilar Jr. · Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election? | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | — | $2 | A | KXCA14SWINNE…AGU | ||
| Matt Ortega · Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election? | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $2 | A | KXCA14SWINNE…ORT | ||
| Carin Elam · Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election? | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXCA14SWINNE…ELA | ||
| Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $29 | A | KXCA14SWINNE…HUA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | relevant county clerk or board of elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Aisha Wahab wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "relevant county clerk or board of elections" sources (7) · stated precedence rule
relevant county clerk or board of elections committed source Attorney General of the United States venue-listed relevant city/municipal clerk venue-listed in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer venue-listed the Federal Election Commission venue-listed state board of elections or canvassing board venue-listed The Source Agencies are venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election? | kalshi | 2026-08-21 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- CA-14 special election winner trading near certainty 97% · $50K 24h
- Kalshi prices the leading CA-14 special election candidate at 97%, high conviction, small residual risk.
- $50K in 24h accounts for 41% of all-time volume, a strong single-session concentration.
- California special elections can produce late mail-ballot shifts; the 3% discount reflects that tail risk.
- Resolves on California's certified results for the 2026 CA-14 congressional special election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxca14swinner-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxca14swinner-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxca14swinner-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T3PBGQWXX8",
"slug": "kxca14swinner-26",
"question": "Will a special election be held for California's 14th congressional district before the 2026 general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"special-election",
"congressional-race",
"2027-election",
"us-house"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 62018,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Attorney General of the United States",
"url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Election Commission",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}