Will the top two vote-getters in the CA-40 primary advance to the general election? [ resolved 2026-06-10 ]
Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Calvert · Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $4.3K | $19K | A | KXCA40PRIMAR…CAL | ||
| Young Kim · Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | 2026-06-10 | 100.0% | $3.3K | $19K | A | KXCA40PRIMAR…KIM | ||
| Joe Kerr · Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | $2 | $15 | A | KXCA40PRIMAR…KER | ||
| Nina Linh · Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXCA40PRIMAR…LIN | ||
| Lisa Ramirez · Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXCA40PRIMAR…RAM | ||
| Esther Kim Varet · Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | $535 | $3.9K | A | KXCA40PRIMAR…VAR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | relevant county clerk or board of elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Ken Calvert advances in the CA-40 top 2 primary election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "relevant county clerk or board of elections" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| YES | Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 100% |
| YES | Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (6 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxca40primaryadvance-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxca40primaryadvance-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxca40primaryadvance-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9BLKQGBCC2",
"slug": "kxca40primaryadvance-26",
"question": "Will the top two vote-getters in the CA-40 primary advance to the general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-primary",
"2027-election",
"ca-40-district",
"top-two-primary",
"house-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 41753,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}