Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
Will a one-time tax on billionaires be held in California before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a one-time tax on billionaires be held in California before Nov 3, 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 70.0% | $3.0K | $54K | A | KXCABILLIONA…V03 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC News | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative has been officially held in California before Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the referendum to be "officially held," voting must have commenced and concluded according to the established electoral process, votes must have been cast and are in the process of being counted or have been counted, and the referendum/ballot initiative must appear on official ballots distributed to eligible voters. Voting must have officially ended by the specified date for the market to resolve Yes. The following do NOT constitute "officially held": mere scheduling or announcement of the referendum for future voting, signature gathering or petition phases for ballot initiatives, court challenges or legal proceedings about the referendum, preliminary or unofficial results announcements, or recounts and post-election audits (the initial voting process determines resolution). The referendum must be officially held within the specified geographic area, which can range from supranational to local jurisdictions or even "none" for certain special cases.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC News" sources (28) · single authority
- ABC News venue-listed
- ABC News Australia venue-listed
- Al Jazeera English venue-listed
- BBC News venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- CBS News venue-listed
- Channel NewsAsia venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Deutsche Welle venue-listed
- Financial Times venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- France 24 English venue-listed
- local newspapers of record in the relevant jurisdictions venue-listed
- NBC News venue-listed
- NHK World-Japan venue-listed
- official government websites for area venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- relevant Secretary of State office source of record venue-listed
- relevant supranational/federal/state/provincial/local election authority for area venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Globe and Mail venue-listed
- The Guardian venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- The South China Morning Post venue-listed
- The Times of India venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcabillionairetax-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcabillionairetax-26nov03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcabillionairetax-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-J12GRT1JJ4",
"slug": "kxcabillionairetax-26nov03",
"question": "Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"wealth-tax",
"ballot-initiative",
"2026-election",
"billionaire-taxation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 53856,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ABC News",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "relevant Secretary of State office",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC News",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News Australia",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Al Jazeera English",
"url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC News",
"url": "https://www.bbc.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS News",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Channel NewsAsia",
"url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/us",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Deutsche Welle",
"url": "https://www.dw.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Financial Times",
"url": "https://www.ft.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "France 24 English",
"url": "https://www.france24.com/en/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "local newspapers of record in the relevant jurisdictions",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC News",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NHK World-Japan",
"url": "https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government websites for area",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant Secretary of State office",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant supranational/federal/state/provincial/local election authority for area",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Globe and Mail",
"url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The South China Morning Post",
"url": "https://www.scmp.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Times of India",
"url": "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}