Will the CAC 40 reach a specific price level in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-08 (16D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €8,425 | 2026-08-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.2K | C | KXCAC40-26JU…425 | ||
| €8,450 | 2026-08-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.2K | C | KXCAC40-26JU…450 | ||
| €8,500 | 2026-08-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.3K | C | KXCAC40-26JU…500 | ||
| €8,550 | 2026-08-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.9K | C | KXCAC40-26JU…550 | ||
| €8,600 | 2026-08-08 | 6.0% | — | $86 | C | KXCAC40-26JU…600 | ||
| €8,650 | 2026-08-08 | 30.0% | — | $243 | C | KXCAC40-26JU…650 | ||
| €8,700 | 2026-08-08 | 31.0% | — | $113 | C | KXCAC40-26JU…700 | ||
| €8,750 | 2026-08-08 | 32.0% | — | $12 | C | KXCAC40-26JU…750 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Trading View | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the value of CAC 40 (CAC40) is at least €8,425 from Jul 1, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the value of the CAC 40 as reported by the Trading View, using the index's natively published level in its own currency and units; no currency conversion is applied. It is sufficient for the index to reach or exceed €8,425 at any single point during from Jul 1, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026 for the market to resolve to Yes — the level does not need to be sustained. If the index does not reach €8,425 at any point during from Jul 1, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026, the market resolves to No. Revisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
If no data is available for from Jul 1, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026 by the Expiration Date, all strikes other than "No data" or "None" resolve to No. The index level is evaluated to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Trading View" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Trading View source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the CAC 40 be at least €8,550 in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-19 | 99% |
| YES | Will the CAC 40 be at least €8,500 in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-19 | 99% |
| YES | Will the CAC 40 be at least €8,450 in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-19 | 99% |
| YES | Will the CAC 40 be at least €8,425 in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-19 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcac40-26jul31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcac40-26jul31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcac40-26jul31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WX3R144MR2",
"slug": "kxcac40-26jul31",
"question": "Will the CAC 40 reach a specific price level in July 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"cac-40",
"stock-index",
"european-equities",
"price-level",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6013,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Trading View",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/INDEX-CAC40/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Trading View",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Trading View",
"url": "https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/INDEX-CAC40/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}