Will the 2026 California gubernatorial election result in a specific matchup? [ resolved 2026-06-10 ]
Will Steve Hilton and Eric Swalwell be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Hilton and Eric Swalwell be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $8 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…SWA | ||
| Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | $442 | $2.0K | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…STE | ||
| Steve Hilton and Katie Porter be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $280 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…POR | ||
| Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | $30 | $1.3K | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…BIA | ||
| Steve Hilton and Matt Mahan be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $612 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…MAH | ||
| Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $0 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…STE | ||
| Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $0 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…POR | ||
| Eric Swalwell and Chad Bianco be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…BIA | ||
| Eric Swalwell and Matt Mahan be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…MAH | ||
| Tom Steyer and Katie Porter be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $232 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…POR | ||
| Tom Steyer and Chad Bianco be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | $9 | $297 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…BIA | ||
| Tom Steyer and Matt Mahan be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $269 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…MAH | ||
| Katie Porter and Chad Bianco be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $47 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…BIA | ||
| Katie Porter and Matt Mahan be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $31 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…MAH | ||
| Chad Bianco and Matt Mahan be the nominees | 2026-06-06 | 0.0% | — | $61 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…MAH | ||
| Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance | 2026-06-10 | 100.0% | $48K | $183K | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…HIL | ||
| Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer be the nominees | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | $7.9K | $41K | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…STE | ||
| Xavier Becerra and Katie Porter advance | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $36 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…POR | ||
| Xavier Becerra and Chad Bianco be the nominees | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | $114 | $1.1K | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…BIA | ||
| Xavier Becerra and Matt Mahan be the nominees | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $52 | A | KXCAGOVMATCH…MAH |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Steve Hilton and Eric Swalwell advance in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Steve Hilton (USELECTION), Eric Swalwell (USELECTION). All conditions must be satisfied for the 2026 California gubernatorial primary.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 100% |
| NO | Will Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Xavier Becerra and Katie Porter advance in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Xavier Becerra and Chad Bianco be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Xavier Becerra and Matt Mahan be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Chad Bianco and Matt Mahan be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Katie Porter and Matt Mahan be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Katie Porter and Chad Bianco be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tom Steyer and Matt Mahan be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tom Steyer and Chad Bianco be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tom Steyer and Katie Porter be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Eric Swalwell and Matt Mahan be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Eric Swalwell and Chad Bianco be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton and Matt Mahan be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton and Katie Porter be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton and Eric Swalwell be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (20 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcagovmatchup-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcagovmatchup-26jun |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcagovmatchup-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-850TXDP807",
"slug": "kxcagovmatchup-26jun",
"question": "Will the 2026 California gubernatorial election result in a specific matchup?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-governor",
"2026-election",
"primary-matchup",
"us-politics",
"gubernatorial-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 230125,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}