CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will a candidate in the California Governor primary outperform the polls? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]

kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Xavier Becerra 2027-01-01 99.0%
$57 $2.7K
C KXCAGOVOUTPE…BAS
Steve Hilton 2027-01-01 99.0%
— $3.4K
C KXCAGOVOUTPE…PRA
Tom Steyer 2027-01-01 97.0%
— $3.1K
C KXCAGOVOUTPE…RAM
Katie Porter 2027-01-01 11.0%
— $124
C KXCAGOVOUTPE…HUA
Butch Ware 2027-01-01 9.0%
— $344
C KXCAGOVOUTPE…WAR
Chad Bianco 2027-01-01 2.0%
— $88
C KXCAGOVOUTPE…MIL
Antonio Villaraigosa 2027-01-01 2.0%
$0 $1
C KXCAGOVOUTPE…VIL
Betty Yee 2027-01-01 2.0%
$0 $28
C KXCAGOVOUTPE…YEE
Matt Mahan 2027-01-01 1.0%
— $22
C KXCAGOVOUTPE…MAH
Leo Zacky 2027-01-01 1.0%
— $13
C KXCAGOVOUTPE…ZAC
Tony Thurmond 2027-01-01 1.0%
— $8
C KXCAGOVOUTPE…THU
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections not provided Kalshi Staff Other —
verbatim rules
kalshi 11 markets · share this text
If Xavier Becerra's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No. The California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections"
sources (5)
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcagovoutperform-26jun02/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcagovoutperform-26jun02
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxcagovoutperform-26jun02")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
  "slug": "kxcagovoutperform-26jun02",
  "question": "Will a candidate in the California Governor primary outperform the polls?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "california-governor-2026",
    "polling-outperformance",
    "primary-election",
    "us-politics",
    "electoral-prediction"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 11,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 9932,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 80,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant ; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant ; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Source Agencies are",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "constitutional court",
      "url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the official religious authority (e",
      "url": "http://leader.ir",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "in hierarchical order",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →