Will the California Governor primary result in an exact tie or split decision among the top candidates by June 2026? [ resolved 2026-07-11 ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 48 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 100.0% | — | $14K | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $5 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $1 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $1 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $1 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $43 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $16 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $14 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $4 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $6 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $2 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $10 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $1 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $25 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $4 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $1 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $24 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $1 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $1 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $1 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $1 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $7 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $11 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $163 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $8 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $1 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $11 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $11 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…POR | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $0 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…MAH |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the exact result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is Tom Steyer (1st), Xavier Becerra (2nd), Steve Hilton (3rd), Chad Bianco (4th), Matt Mahan (5th), Katie Porter (6th), then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| YES | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 100% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (48 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcagovprimaryexact-26jun02/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcagovprimaryexact-26jun02 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcagovprimaryexact-26jun02") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P8ZBC3HFH6",
"slug": "kxcagovprimaryexact-26jun02",
"question": "Will the California Governor primary result in an exact tie or split decision among the top candidates by June 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"2027-election",
"primary-election",
"order-prediction",
"us-governor"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 48,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14565,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 70,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}