Will the top 3 candidates in the California governor primary each receive at least 15% of the vote? [ resolved 2026-07-11 ]
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.9% | — | $716 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…HIL | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $60 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BIA | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $54 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…STE | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $62 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…HIL | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $87 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…HIL | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $82 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BIA | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $68 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BEC | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $65 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BIA | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $76 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BEC | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $65 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…HIL | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $47 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BEC | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $87 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BIA | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $149 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BEC | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $99 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…STE | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $110 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…STE | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $108 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…HIL | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $101 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BEC | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $90 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…HIL | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $95 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BEC | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-06-16 | 0.1% | — | $84 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…STE | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 100.0% | $323 | $103K | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…STE | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | $0 | $34 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BIA | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $632 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…STE | ||
| Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | $1 | $187 | B | KXCAGOVPRIMA…BIA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the exact result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is Xavier Becerra (1st), Tom Steyer (2nd), Steve Hilton (3rd), then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 100% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 1% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (24 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcagovprimarytop3-26jun02/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcagovprimarytop3-26jun02 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcagovprimarytop3-26jun02") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CF8ZC1ML12",
"slug": "kxcagovprimarytop3-26jun02",
"question": "Will the top 3 candidates in the California governor primary each receive at least 15% of the vote?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"2026-election",
"primary-election",
"gubernatorial-race",
"top-finishers"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 106168,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 70,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}