Will someone leave California before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Thiel | 2027-01-01 | 56.0% | — | $1.7K | C | KXCALIFORNIA…THI | ||
| Larry Page | 2027-01-01 | 43.0% | — | $1.4K | C | KXCALIFORNIA…PAG | ||
| Mark Zuckerberg | 2027-01-01 | 39.0% | — | $1.5K | C | KXCALIFORNIA…ZUC | ||
| Marc Andreessen | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | — | $703 | C | KXCALIFORNIA…AND | ||
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | — | $401 | C | KXCALIFORNIA…PAL | ||
| Palmer Luckey | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $108 | C | KXCALIFORNIA…LUC | ||
| Jensen Huang | 2027-01-01 | 7.1% | — | $33 | C | KXCALIFORNIA…HUA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CNBC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Larry Page announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CNBC" sources (14)
- CNBC venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- official representatives or spokespersons for <person> venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- verified social media accounts belonging to <person> venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcalifornialeave-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcalifornialeave-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcalifornialeave-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S5NWNB3J05",
"slug": "kxcalifornialeave-27",
"question": "Will someone leave California before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-exodus",
"state-relocation",
"tech-leadership",
"2027",
"person-specific"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5897,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "CNBC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official representatives or spokespersons for " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "verified social media accounts belonging to " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}