Will a candidate advance from the California 6th district primary?district primary advance to the general election? [ resolved 2026-06-10 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Pan | 2026-06-10 | 100.0% | $216 | $1.8K | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…PAN | ||
| Kevin Kiley | 2026-06-10 | 100.0% | — | $8.2K | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…KIL | ||
| Lauren Babb Tomlinson | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | $9 | $639 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…TOM | ||
| Martha Guerrero | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $12 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…GUE | ||
| Thien Ho | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | $29 | $534 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…THO | ||
| Michael Stansfield | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | $142 | $194 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…STA | ||
| Tyler Vandenberg | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $257 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…VAN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Washington Secretary of State | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Kevin Kiley advances in the 2026 CA-06 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Washington Secretary of State" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Lauren Babb Tomlinson advance in the 2026 CA-06 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Martha Guerrero advance in the 2026 CA-06 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Thien Ho advance in the 2026 CA-06 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Michael Stansfield advance in the 2026 CA-06 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tyler Vandenberg advance in the 2026 CA-06 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| YES | Will Kevin Kiley advance in the 2026 CA-06 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will Richard Pan advance in the 2026 CA-06 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (7 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcaprimary-0626/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcaprimary-0626 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcaprimary-0626") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RPXCM187N8",
"slug": "kxcaprimary-0626",
"question": "Will a candidate advance from the California 6th district primary?district primary advance to the general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-primary",
"ca-06",
"2026-election",
"house-primary",
"primary-advancement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11576,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Washington Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}