CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Scott Wiener place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]

Will Connie Chan place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 11 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Will Scott Wiener place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary 2026-11-03 98.0%
$2.6K $16K
A KXCAPRIMARY-…WIE
Will Connie Chan place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary 2026-11-03 42.0%
$175 $1.5K
A KXCAPRIMARY-…CHA
Will John Buffler place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary 2026-11-03 1.0%
$10
A KXCAPRIMARY-…BUF
Will Saikat Chakrabarti place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary 2026-11-03 1.0%
$21 $102
A KXCAPRIMARY-…CHA
Will Nathan Deer place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary 2026-11-03 1.0%
$10
A KXCAPRIMARY-…DEE
Will Keith Freedman place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary 2026-11-03 1.0%
$10
A KXCAPRIMARY-…FRE
Will David Ganezer place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary 2026-11-03 1.0%
$10
A KXCAPRIMARY-…GAN
Will Omed Hamid place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary 2026-11-03 1.0%
$10
A KXCAPRIMARY-…HAM
Will Gregory Haynes place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary 2026-11-03 1.0%
$48
A KXCAPRIMARY-…HAY
Will Marie Hurabiell place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary 2026-11-03 1.0%
$38
A KXCAPRIMARY-…HUR
Will Jingchao Xiong place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary 2026-11-03 1.0%
$37
A KXCAPRIMARY-…XIO
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Washington Secretary of State not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 11 markets · share this text
If John Buffler wins the the 2026 CA-11 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Washington Secretary of State"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcaprimary-11first26/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcaprimary-11first26.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxcaprimary-11first26")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DWVZ5TGXF0",
  "slug": "kxcaprimary-11first26",
  "question": "Will Scott Wiener place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "ca-11-primary",
    "us-house-races",
    "2026-primary",
    "first-place",
    "california-politics"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 11,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 17344,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Washington Secretary of State",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →