Will a candidate advance from the CA-14 primary by the 2026 general election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melissa Hernandez | 2026-11-03 | 99.9% | $8.2K | $32K | B | KXCAPRIMARY-…HER | ||
| Aisha Wahab | 2026-11-03 | 99.9% | — | $19K | B | KXCAPRIMARY-…WAH | ||
| Victor Aguilar | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $63 | B | KXCAPRIMARY-…AGU | ||
| Wendy Huang | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $52 | B | KXCAPRIMARY-…HUA | ||
| Dena Maldonado | 2026-11-03 | 0.9% | — | $37 | B | KXCAPRIMARY-…MAL | ||
| Carin Elam | 2026-11-03 | 0.8% | — | $18 | B | KXCAPRIMARY-…ELA | ||
| Suzanne Chenault | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $1 | B | KXCAPRIMARY-…CHE | ||
| Matt Ortega | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $1 | B | KXCAPRIMARY-…ORT | ||
| Rakhi Israni Singh | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $0 | $42 | B | KXCAPRIMARY-…SIN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Washington Secretary of State | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Victor Aguilar advances in the 2026 CA-14 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Washington Secretary of State" sources (1) · single authority
- Washington Secretary of State source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Aisha Wahab advance in the 2026 CA-14 primary? | kalshi | 2026-11-03 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcaprimary-1426/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcaprimary-1426 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcaprimary-1426") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GBZNPWHJ47",
"slug": "kxcaprimary-1426",
"question": "Will a candidate advance from the CA-14 primary by the 2026 general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-primary-2026",
"us-house-race",
"electoral-advancement",
"district-14",
"primary-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 51647,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Washington Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Washington Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Washington Secretary of State",
"url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}