CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the top two vote-getters in the California 43rd congressional district primary advance to the general election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Maxine Waters 2026-11-03 99.7%
$6.5K
C KXCAPRIMARY-…WAT
Christian Morales 2026-11-03 98.9%
$4.6K
C KXCAPRIMARY-…MOR
Myla Rahman 2026-11-03 0.2%
$8
C KXCAPRIMARY-…RAH
David Sedlik 2026-11-03 0.2%
$5
C KXCAPRIMARY-…SED
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Washington Secretary of State not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 4 markets · share this text
If Maxine Waters advances in the 2026 CA-43 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Washington Secretary of State"
sources (2)
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will Maxine Waters advance in the 2026 CA-43 primary? kalshi 2026-11-03 100%
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcaprimary-4326/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcaprimary-4326
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxcaprimary-4326")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TWHF3KLDD2",
  "slug": "kxcaprimary-4326",
  "question": "Will the top two vote-getters in the California 43rd congressional district primary advance to the general election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "2026-election",
    "california-primary",
    "us-house",
    "maxine-waters",
    "primary-advancement"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 11131,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 56,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Washington Secretary of State",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Washington Secretary of State",
      "url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "consensus of media organizations",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →