Will the winner of the California 45th congressional district primary advance to the general election? [ resolved 2026-06-08 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Tran | 2026-06-08 | 100.0% | $31 | $5.7K | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…TRA | ||
| Chuong Vo | 2026-06-08 | 100.0% | $14 | $94 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…CVO | ||
| Mark Leonard | 2026-06-08 | 0.0% | — | $5 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…LEO | ||
| Chi Charlie Nguyen | 2026-06-08 | 0.0% | $27 | $4.7K | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…NGU | ||
| Tom Vo | 2026-06-08 | 0.0% | $26 | $3.0K | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…TVO | ||
| Amy Phan West | 2026-06-08 | 0.0% | $0 | $8 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…WES |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Washington Secretary of State | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Derek Tran advances in the 2026 CA-45 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Washington Secretary of State" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Amy Phan West advance in the 2026 CA-45 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-08 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tom Vo advance in the 2026 CA-45 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-08 | 0% |
| NO | Will Chi Charlie Nguyen advance in the 2026 CA-45 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-08 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mark Leonard advance in the 2026 CA-45 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-08 | 0% |
| YES | Will Chuong Vo advance in the 2026 CA-45 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-08 | 100% |
| YES | Will Derek Tran advance in the 2026 CA-45 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-08 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (6 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcaprimary-4526/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcaprimary-4526 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcaprimary-4526") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RF83V4KH32",
"slug": "kxcaprimary-4526",
"question": "Will the winner of the California 45th congressional district primary advance to the general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"primary-election",
"2026-cycle",
"house-race",
"ca-45"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13501,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Washington Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}