Will the winner of the California 47th congressional district primary advance to the general election? [ resolved 2026-06-03 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Min | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $6.3K | $6.3K | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…MIN | ||
| Jenny Le Roux | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | — | $7.4K | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…ROU | ||
| Bill Brough | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…BRO | ||
| Christopher Gonzales | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | $3 | $16 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…GON | ||
| Michael Maxsenti | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | $1 | $1 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…MAX | ||
| Hunter Miranda | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…MIR | ||
| Jesus Patino | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | $3 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…PAT | ||
| Eric Troutman | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | $2 | $391 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…TRO | ||
| Derrick Reid | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | $0 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…REI |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Washington Secretary of State | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Dave Min advances in the 2026 CA-47 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Washington Secretary of State" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Derrick Reid advance in the 2026 CA-47 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Eric Troutman advance in the 2026 CA-47 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jesus Patino advance in the 2026 CA-47 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Hunter Miranda advance in the 2026 CA-47 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Michael Maxsenti advance in the 2026 CA-47 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Christopher Gonzales advance in the 2026 CA-47 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Bill Brough advance in the 2026 CA-47 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| YES | Will Jenny Le Roux advance in the 2026 CA-47 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | Will Dave Min advance in the 2026 CA-47 primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (9 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcaprimary-4726/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcaprimary-4726 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcaprimary-4726") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FXF07JMDP9",
"slug": "kxcaprimary-4726",
"question": "Will the winner of the California 47th congressional district primary advance to the general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"primary-election",
"2026-midterms",
"ca-47",
"election-advancement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14118,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Washington Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}