Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass | 2026-11-03 | 33.0% | $5.1K | $142K | A | KXCAWEALTHTAX-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Wall Street Journal | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.
A referendum "passes" when it meets ALL of the following conditions: receives the minimum percentage of "Yes" or "For" votes required by the applicable constitution, law, or electoral rules (whether simple majority, supermajority, or other threshold), meets any minimum voter turnout requirements if applicable, and is certified as passed by the official electoral authority.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Wall Street Journal" sources (18) · single authority
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- CBS News venue-listed
- CNN International venue-listed
- official electoral commission or equivalent authority of geography source of record venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- in hierarchical order venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- BBC News venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- NBC News venue-listed
- ABC News venue-listed
- official government website of geography venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcawealthtax-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcawealthtax-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcawealthtax-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-03C1PRYVN4",
"slug": "kxcawealthtax-26",
"question": "Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"wealth-tax",
"ballot-initiative",
"2027-election",
"tax-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 142499,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The Wall Street Journal",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official electoral commission or equivalent authority of geography",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS News",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN International",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official electoral commission or equivalent authority of geography",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC News",
"url": "https://www.bbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC News",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government website of geography",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}