Will the US ban CBDC by 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
Will legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency become law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or… | 2027-01-01 | 98.0% | — | $12K | A | KXCBDCBAN-26MAY |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency has become law after Issuance and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- White House venue-listed
- Library of Congress venue-listed
recent wire items
- US CBDC ban by end of 2026 nears full pricing on Congress move Kalshi 97%
- Kalshi prices a 97% probability that the United States will ban a central bank digital currency by end of 2026.
- Congressional action blocking a retail Fed digital dollar is directly consistent with the near-full pricing on Kalshi.
- Companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4) at 51% on the Fed raising rates at least once in 2026 shows the broader monetary policy picture remains genuinely split.
- Resolves via the White House; a signed bill or executive action formally prohibiting a retail CBDC satisfies the contract.
- US CBDC ban by year-end nears full pricing on Kalshi Kalshi 98%
- Kalshi prices the US banning a central bank digital currency by end of 2026 at 98%.
- The Senate's 85-5 passage of the housing bill embedding the CBDC ban is consistent with the near-certain pricing; overwhelming bipartisan margin reduces veto or amendment risk.
- The bill still requires House passage and presidential signature; the 2% residual reflects that procedural tail.
- Resolves via White House signature confirmation; failure of the broader housing bill in the House could reopen the gap.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcbdcban-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcbdcban-26may |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcbdcban-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-B8S55432V7",
"slug": "kxcbdcban-26may",
"question": "Will the US ban CBDC by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-cbdc",
"federal-reserve",
"crypto-regulation",
"legislative-ban",
"monetary-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11529,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://congress.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}