Will the Bank of Canada make a decision in October 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-28 (85D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike rates by 0bps | 2026-10-28 | 80.0% | $744 | $13K | A | KXCBDECISION…-H0 | ||
| Hike rates by 25bps | 2026-10-28 | 18.0% | $118 | $3.5K | A | KXCBDECISION…H25 | ||
| Cut rates by 25bps | 2026-10-28 | 2.0% | $11 | $199 | A | KXCBDECISION…C25 | ||
| Cut rates by >25bps | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXCBDECISION…C26 | ||
| Hike rates by >25bps | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXCBDECISION…H26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | central bank | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bank of Canada does a Cut of >25bps at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "central bank" sources (23) · single authority
- central bank source of record venue-listed
- in hierarchical order venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- MarketWatch venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- Associated Press venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Economic Data venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- Bloomberg Terminal venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Financial Times venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RCX0GXDHW8",
"slug": "kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct",
"question": "Will the Bank of Canada make a decision in October 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"bank-of-canada",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"canada",
"central-banking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17082,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "central bank",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "central bank",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "central bank",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MarketWatch",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Financial Times",
"url": "https://www.ft.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}