Will the Bank of Canada make a decision in October 2026? [ resolved 2026-10-28 ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 5 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Hike rates by 25bps	2026-10-28	100.0%	$118	$3.5K	A	`KXCBDECISION…H25`
Cut rates by >25bps	2026-10-28	0.0%	—	—	A	`KXCBDECISION…C26`
Cut rates by 25bps	2026-10-28	0.0%	$11	$199	A	`KXCBDECISION…C25`
Hike rates by 0bps	2026-10-28	0.0%	$744	$13K	A	`KXCBDECISION…-H0`
Hike rates by >25bps	2026-10-28	0.0%	—	—	A	`KXCBDECISION…H26`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	central bank	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 5 markets · share this text

If the Bank of Canada does a Cut of >25bps at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "central bank"

sources (23) · single authority

central bank committed source in hierarchical order venue-listed Semafor venue-listed MarketWatch venue-listed BBC venue-listed Associated Press venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed The Information venue-listed CBS venue-listed NBC venue-listed Federal Reserve Economic Data venue-listed Axios venue-listed Bloomberg Terminal venue-listed CNN venue-listed Fox News venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Politico venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed ABC venue-listed Financial Times venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?	kalshi	`2026-10-28`	`0%`
NO	Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?	kalshi	`2026-10-28`	`0%`
NO	Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?	kalshi	`2026-10-28`	`0%`
YES	Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?	kalshi	`2026-10-28`	`100%`
NO	Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?	kalshi	`2026-10-28`	`0%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-10-20T13:16:06+00:00 volume-spike
Bank of Canada October hike stays favored through a volume surge 67% · $23K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 67% probability of a Bank of Canada 25bps hike at the October 2026 meeting, a clear lean toward action.
- 24h volume of $23K is 28% of all-time handle, a meaningful but measured increase consistent with pre-meeting positioning.
- Fresh volume likely follows a Canadian CPI print, employment data, or hawkish BoC communication sharpening the near-term rate path.
- Resolves at the October 2026 BoC policy decision; 67% implies markets see a hike as the base case but not a certainty.
2026-10-20T07:48:28+00:00 volume-spike
Buyers back a 25bps Bank of Canada hike in October at 62% 62% · $22K 24h
- Kalshi prices 62% on the Bank of Canada raising rates 25bps at its October 2026 meeting, a majority lean but far from consensus.
- $22K in 24h is 30% of all-time volume, moving alongside the hold contract as the full rate-decision market reprices.
- 62% for a hike implies traders have a base case for tightening but the hold scenario at 39% remains very much alive.
- Resolves on the Bank of Canada October 2026 rate announcement; any surprise inflation or labor data could compress this spread sharply.
2026-10-20T07:48:28+00:00 volume-spike
Bank of Canada October hold bets run neck-and-neck at 39% 39% · $24K 24h
- Kalshi prices 39% on the Bank of Canada holding rates unchanged at its October 2026 meeting, slightly trailing the hike scenario.
- $24K in 24h is 32% of all-time volume, moving in tandem with the 25bps hike contract for a clear two-sided rate debate.
- 39% hold vs. 62% hike on the companion contract implies the market has a lean but not conviction toward a 25bps move.
- Resolves on the Bank of Canada October 2026 rate decision; spread is narrow enough that one data print could flip positioning.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RCX0GXDHW8",
  "slug": "kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct",
  "question": "Will the Bank of Canada make a decision in October 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "bank-of-canada",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "canada",
    "central-banking"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 5,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 17082,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "central bank",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "central bank",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "central bank",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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    },
    {
      "name": "in hierarchical order",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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    {
      "name": "Semafor",
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    {
      "name": "MarketWatch",
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    {
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      "url": "https://apnews.com",
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      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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    {
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    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
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    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
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    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
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    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
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    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Financial Times",
      "url": "https://www.ft.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →