Will the European Central Bank change its interest rate in June? [ resolved 2026-06-11 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 1-25bps | 2026-06-11 | 100.0% | $830 | $18K | A | KXCBDECISION…H25 | ||
| > 25 | 2026-06-11 | 0.0% | $0 | $64 | A | KXCBDECISION…25P | ||
| Cut 1-25bps | 2026-06-11 | 0.0% | $0 | $43 | A | KXCBDECISION…C25 | ||
| Maintain current rate | 2026-06-11 | 0.0% | — | $424 | A | KXCBDECISION…OLD | ||
| > 25 | 2026-06-11 | 0.0% | — | $104 | A | KXCBDECISION…25P |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | central bank | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the European Central Bank takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "central bank" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-11 | 0% |
| YES | Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-11 | 100% |
| NO | Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-11 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (5 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcbdecisioneu-26jun11/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcbdecisioneu-26jun11 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcbdecisioneu-26jun11") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XLXQZ6GB39",
"slug": "kxcbdecisioneu-26jun11",
"question": "Will the European Central Bank change its interest rate in June?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"ecb-monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"central-banking",
"economic-forecasting",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18419,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "central bank",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}