Will the Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate at its August meeting? [ resolves 2026-08-06 (14D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 2026-08-06 | 87.0% | $3 | $7.5K | A | KXCBDECISION…OLD | ||
| Cut 25bps | 2026-08-06 | 8.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXCBDECISION…C25 | ||
| Cut 50bps | 2026-08-06 | 4.0% | — | $113 | A | KXCBDECISION…C50 | ||
| > 50 | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | KXCBDECISION…50P | ||
| Hike 25bps | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | — | $9 | A | KXCBDECISION…25P | ||
| Hike 50bps | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | — | $9 | A | KXCBDECISION…H50 | ||
| > 50 | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | KXCBDECISION…50P |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | central bank | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Cut more than 50bps at August Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "central bank" sources (24) · single authority
- central bank source of record venue-listed
- in hierarchical order venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- MarketWatch venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- Associated Press venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Economic Data venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- Bloomberg Terminal venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Financial Times venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcbdecisionmexico-26aug06/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcbdecisionmexico-26aug06 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcbdecisionmexico-26aug06") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Q18GXSXJZ1",
"slug": "kxcbdecisionmexico-26aug06",
"question": "Will the Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate at its August meeting?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"banco-de-mexico",
"interest-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"central-bank",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8786,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "central bank",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "central bank",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "central bank",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MarketWatch",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg Terminal",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Financial Times",
"url": "https://www.ft.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}