Will any central banks hike interest rates before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (203D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The European Central Bank raise its deposit facility rate | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $809 | A | KXCBRATEHIKE…ECB | ||
| The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raise the Official Cash Rate | 2027-01-01 | 92.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXCBRATEHIKE…RBN | ||
| Norges Bank raise its policy rate | 2027-01-01 | 77.0% | — | $193 | A | KXCBRATEHIKE…NOR | ||
| The Bank of England raise the Bank Rate | 2027-01-01 | 67.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXCBRATEHIKE…BOE | ||
| The Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate target | 2027-01-01 | 62.0% | $68 | $368 | A | KXCBRATEHIKE…RBA | ||
| The Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate | 2027-01-01 | 53.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXCBRATEHIKE…FED | ||
| The Bank of Canada raise its target for the overnight rate | 2027-01-01 | 50.0% | $5 | $690 | A | KXCBRATEHIKE…BOC | ||
| The Riksbank raise its policy rate | 2027-01-01 | 47.0% | $52 | $290 | A | KXCBRATEHIKE…RIK | ||
| The Swiss National Bank raise the SNB policy rate | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $9 | $46 | A | KXCBRATEHIKE…SNB | ||
| The Bank of Japan raise its policy rate or target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXCBRATEHIKE…BOJ |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Semafor | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the federal funds rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.
The market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.
If the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Semafor" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcbratehike-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcbratehike-27.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcbratehike-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-12. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
"slug": "kxcbratehike-27",
"question": "Will any central banks hike interest rates before 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"central-banks",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"2027",
"economic-forecasting"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7955,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Semafor",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}