Which central banks will hike interest rates before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 10 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
The European Central Bank raise its deposit facility rate	2027-01-01	99.0%	—	$809	C	`KXCBRATEHIKE…ECB`
The Bank of Japan raise its policy rate or target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate	2027-01-01	99.0%	—	$595	C	`KXCBRATEHIKE…BOJ`
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raise the Official Cash Rate	2027-01-01	99.0%	—	$5.2K	C	`KXCBRATEHIKE…RBN`
The Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate	2027-01-01	68.0%	$721	$15K	C	`KXCBRATEHIKE…FED`
The Riksbank raise its policy rate	2027-01-01	53.0%	$2	$357	C	`KXCBRATEHIKE…RIK`
The Bank of England raise the Bank Rate	2027-01-01	42.0%	$366	$2.5K	C	`KXCBRATEHIKE…BOE`
The Bank of Canada raise its target for the overnight rate	2027-01-01	33.0%	—	$1.5K	C	`KXCBRATEHIKE…BOC`
Norges Bank raise its policy rate	2027-01-01	15.0%	$0	$62	C	`KXCBRATEHIKE…NOR`
The Swiss National Bank raise the SNB policy rate	2027-01-01	12.0%	—	$76	C	`KXCBRATEHIKE…SNB`
The Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate target	2027-01-01	10.0%	$1	$89	C	`KXCBRATEHIKE…RBA`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Semafor	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 10 markets · share this text

If the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the federal funds rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate. The market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used. If the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Semafor"

sources (17)

Semafor venue-listed
ABC venue-listed
Bloomberg venue-listed
NBC venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
Associated Press venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
The Information venue-listed
Politico venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
the New York Times venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
relevant Source Agency from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raise the Official Cash Rate before 2027?	kalshi	`2026-07-08`	`99%`
YES	Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate or target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate before 2027?	kalshi	`2026-06-16`	`99%`
YES	Will the European Central Bank raise its deposit facility rate before 2027?	kalshi	`2026-06-11`	`99%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcbratehike-27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcbratehike-27`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxcbratehike-27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
  "slug": "kxcbratehike-27",
  "question": "Which central banks will hike interest rates before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "central-banks",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "2027",
    "economic-forecasting"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 10,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 26314,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 68,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Semafor",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "relevant Source Agency",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →