CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2027-01 ]

Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Jul 1, 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Jun 1, 2026 2026-06-08 1.0%
$2
A KXCDCCONF-27…N01
Jul 1, 2026 2026-07-08 8.0%
$50
A KXCDCCONF-27…L01
Aug 1, 2026 2026-08-08 1.0%
$45
A KXCDCCONF-27…G01
Jan 1, 2027 2027-01-08 98.0%
$962 $7.0K
A KXCDCCONF-27…N01
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff the United States Senate not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 4 markets · share this text
If the U.S. Senate confirms Erica Schwartz to the position of CDC director before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A confirmation is defined as a successful Senate confirmation vote where the nominee receives the constitutionally required majority. This includes confirmation by recorded roll call vote, voice vote, or unanimous consent. Nomination without Senate action, committee approval alone, recess appointments, acting appointments, withdrawn nominations, failed votes, and procedural votes that do not result in final confirmation do not satisfy the Payout Criterion. Confirmation to a different position than the one specified does not count.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "the United States Senate"
sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Aug 1, 2026? kalshi by 2026-08-08 1%
PENDING Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Jul 1, 2026? kalshi by 2026-07-08 8%
NO Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Jun 1, 2026? kalshi by 2026-06-08 1%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcdcconf-27jan01/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcdcconf-27jan01
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxcdcconf-27jan01")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P5J9H9W002",
  "slug": "kxcdcconf-27jan01",
  "question": "Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "executive-confirmation",
    "cdc-leadership",
    "2026",
    "government-appointments"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 7110,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "the United States Senate",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://senate.gov",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "the United States Senate",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "the United States Senate",
      "url": "https://senate.gov",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the U.S. Senate",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →