Will a top Chinese AI company make a major announcement during the week of August 3rd? [ resolves 2026-08-10 (6D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Chinese AI Company week of August 3rd | 2026-08-10 | 94.0% | $143 | $5.7K | C | KXCHINAAI-26…LIB | ||
| Top Chinese AI Company week of August 3rd | 2026-08-10 | 3.0% | $0 | $79 | C | KXCHINAAI-26…ZAI | ||
| Top Chinese AI Company week of August 3rd | 2026-08-10 | 2.0% | $2 | $62 | C | KXCHINAAI-26…OON | ||
| Top Chinese AI Company week of August 3rd | 2026-08-10 | 2.0% | — | $73 | C | KXCHINAAI-26…EEP | ||
| Top Chinese AI Company week of August 3rd | 2026-08-10 | 1.0% | — | $5 | C | KXCHINAAI-26…AID | ||
| Top Chinese AI Company week of August 3rd | 2026-08-10 | 1.0% | — | $5 | C | KXCHINAAI-26…YTE | ||
| Top Chinese AI Company week of August 3rd | 2026-08-10 | 1.0% | — | $5 | C | KXCHINAAI-26…IAO | ||
| Top Chinese AI Company week of August 3rd | 2026-08-10 | 1.0% | — | $6 | C | KXCHINAAI-26…INI | ||
| Top Chinese AI Company week of August 3rd | 2026-08-10 | 1.0% | — | $6 | C | KXCHINAAI-26…ENC |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Aug 10, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies are defined as a company whose global or primary operational headquarters is located in mainland China.
Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) source of record venue-listed
- Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxchinaai-26aug10/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxchinaai-26aug10 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxchinaai-26aug10") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LZ8BLPY6L8",
"slug": "kxchinaai-26aug10",
"question": "Will a top Chinese AI company make a major announcement during the week of August 3rd?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"chinese-ai",
"technology-competition",
"weekly-event",
"2026",
"corporate-leadership"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5951,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}