Will the Citrini scenario occur? [ resolves 2028-07-01 (709D) ]
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2% | 2028-07-01 | 20.0% | $29 | $5.17M | C | KXCITRINI-28JUL01 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Source Agencies are | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Source Agencies are" - The Source Agencies are venue-listed
- monthly BLS from rules text · editorial
- S&P 500 from rules text · editorial
- Zillow Home Value Index from rules text · editorial
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) from rules text · editorial
- CPI-U from rules text · editorial
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcitrini-28jul01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcitrini-28jul01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcitrini-28jul01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-C3PP23BX87",
"slug": "kxcitrini-28jul01",
"question": "Will the Citrini scenario occur?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"scenario-based",
"citrini",
"2028",
"conditional-event",
"geopolitical"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5172830,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Source Agencies are",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "monthly BLS",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "S&P 500",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Zillow Home Value Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "labor share of gross domestic income (GDI)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "CPI-U",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}