Will the Clacton by-election be won by a candidate from the Liberal Democrats, Labour, or the Green Party? [ resolves 2027-09-01 (405D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 2027-09-01 | 95.0% | $48 | $265K | C | KXCLACTONBYE…RUK | ||
| Count Binface Party | 2027-09-01 | 5.0% | $749 | $29K | C | KXCLACTONBYE…BIN | ||
| Conservative party | 2027-09-01 | 1.0% | — | $116 | C | KXCLACTONBYE…CON | ||
| Labour Party | 2027-09-01 | 1.0% | — | $189 | C | KXCLACTONBYE…LAB | ||
| Restore Britain | 2027-09-01 | 1.0% | — | $92 | C | KXCLACTONBYE…RES |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Reform UK wins the 2026 Clacton by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission venue-listed
- constitutional court venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxclactonbyelection-26sep01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxclactonbyelection-26sep01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxclactonbyelection-26sep01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S74DXCHLX7",
"slug": "kxclactonbyelection-26sep01",
"question": "Will the Clacton by-election be won by a candidate from the Liberal Democrats, Labour, or the Green Party?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"uk-politics",
"clacton",
"by-election",
"electoral-outcome",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 295101,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 49,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "constitutional court",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}