CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic release Mythos by 2025? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Aug 1, 2026?

kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 7 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026 2027-01-01 94.0%
$211 $4.9K
C KXCLAUDE-MYT…V01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027 2027-01-01 89.0%
$159 $9.7K
C KXCLAUDE-MYT…N01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026 2027-01-01 87.0%
$248 $5.0K
C KXCLAUDE-MYT…C01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Oct 1, 2026 2027-01-01 83.0%
$481 $5.2K
C KXCLAUDE-MYT…T01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Sep 1, 2026 2027-01-01 80.0%
$491 $14K
C KXCLAUDE-MYT…P01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Aug 1, 2026 2027-01-01 68.0%
$1.7K $18K
C KXCLAUDE-MYT…G01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jul 1, 2026 2027-01-01 21.0%
$1.9K $12K
C KXCLAUDE-MYT…L01
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff uncommitted not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 7 markets · share this text
If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxclaude-myth/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxclaude-myth.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxclaude-myth")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
  "slug": "kxclaude-myth",
  "question": "Will Anthropic release Mythos by 2025?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "anthropic",
    "ai-model-release",
    "mythos",
    "2026",
    "product-launch",
    "technology"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 7,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 68439,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 46,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://openai.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →