When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Oct 1, 2026?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $155 | C | KXCLAUDE-NXT…G01 | ||
| Aug 14, | 2026-08-14 | 0.0% | — | $0 | C | KXCLAUDE-NXT…G14 | ||
| Sep 1, | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $78 | $2.2K | C | KXCLAUDE-NXT…P01 | ||
| Oct 1, | 2026-10-08 | 68.0% | $944 | $16K | C | KXCLAUDE-NXT…T01 | ||
| Nov 1, | 2026-11-08 | 79.0% | $489 | $13K | C | KXCLAUDE-NXT…V01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Anthropic | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Anthropic releases a model under Anthropic's Mythos tier — including models branded "Mythos" or "Fable" - excluding Claude Fable 5 (released June 9, 2026) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Anthropic" sources (1) · single authority
Anthropic committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | by 2026-08-08 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxclaude-nxtmyth/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxclaude-nxtmyth |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxclaude-nxtmyth") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6PFLGLCRD6",
"slug": "kxclaude-nxtmyth",
"question": "When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"anthropic",
"ai-models",
"mythos-class",
"model-release",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31343,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 41,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Anthropic",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Anthropic",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"url": "https://www.anthropic.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}