CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026?

kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Aug 2026-08-08 6.0%
$17 $838
C KXCLAUDE-NXT…G01
Sep 2026-09-08 32.0%
$52 $1.4K
C KXCLAUDE-NXT…P01
Oct 2026-10-08 79.0%
$72 $13K
C KXCLAUDE-NXT…T01
Nov 2026-11-08 93.0%
$9.5K
C KXCLAUDE-NXT…V01
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff OpenAI not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 4 markets · share this text
If Anthropic releases a model under Anthropic's Mythos tier — including models branded "Mythos" or "Fable" - excluding Claude Fable 5 (released June 9, 2026) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "OpenAI"
sources (1)
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxclaude-nxtmyth/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxclaude-nxtmyth
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxclaude-nxtmyth")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6PFLGLCRD6",
  "slug": "kxclaude-nxtmyth",
  "question": "When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "anthropic",
    "ai-model-release",
    "mythos-class",
    "near-term-tech",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 24322,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 29,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
    "commitment_none"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "OpenAI",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://openai.com/",
  "source_status": "no_source_stated",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "OpenAI",
      "url": "https://openai.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →