Will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-08 ]
Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 27, 2026?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, | 2026-07-28 | 1.0% | — | $21 | C | KXCLAUDE-OPU…L21 | ||
| Jul 22, | 2026-07-29 | 2.0% | — | $93 | C | KXCLAUDE-OPU…L22 | ||
| Jul 24, | 2026-07-31 | 4.0% | $1.5K | $1.8K | C | KXCLAUDE-OPU…L24 | ||
| Jul 27, | 2026-08-03 | 23.0% | $2.7K | $3.0K | C | KXCLAUDE-OPU…L27 | ||
| Jul 31, | 2026-08-07 | 89.0% | $6.8K | $10K | C | KXCLAUDE-OPU…L31 | ||
| Aug 14, | 2026-08-21 | 98.0% | $437 | $2.0K | C | KXCLAUDE-OPU…G14 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | OpenAI | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus" (e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5). before Jul 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "OpenAI" sources (1)
- OpenAI venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 22, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-22 | 2% |
| NO | Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 21, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxclaude-opus/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxclaude-opus |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxclaude-opus") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-J5F5XM6L22",
"slug": "kxclaude-opus",
"question": "Will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model by 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"claude-opus",
"anthropic",
"ai-model-release",
"large-language-models",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17096,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 36,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "OpenAI",
"resolution_source_url": "https://openai.com/",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "OpenAI",
"url": "https://openai.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}