Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? [ resolved 2026-07-28 ]
Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jun 19, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXCLAYTONCON…N19 | ||
| Jun 24, | 2026-06-24 | 0.0% | — | $331 | A | KXCLAYTONCON…N24 | ||
| Jun 27, | 2026-06-27 | 0.0% | — | $246 | A | KXCLAYTONCON…N27 | ||
| Jul 18, | 2026-07-18 | 0.0% | — | $123 | A | KXCLAYTONCON…L18 | ||
| Aug 1, | 2026-07-28 | 100.0% | $1.3K | $15K | A | KXCLAYTONCON…G01 | ||
| Aug 8, | 2026-07-28 | 100.0% | $103 | $6.7K | A | KXCLAYTONCON…G08 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | U.S. Senate | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Jay Clayton is the first person confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jun 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "U.S. Senate" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
U.S. Senate committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 100% |
| YES | Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 8, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 100% |
| NO | Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jul 18, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jun 27, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-27 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jun 24, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jun 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxclaytonconf-26jun11/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxclaytonconf-26jun11 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxclaytonconf-26jun11") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5BZ8DKZ271",
"slug": "kxclaytonconf-26jun11",
"question": "Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-intelligence",
"senate-confirmation",
"jay-clayton",
"executive-appointment",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24401,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "U.S. Senate",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Senate",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "U.S. Senate",
"url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}