Will the closest Senate race in 2026 occur in a state other than Nevada? [ resolves 2027-01-03 (181D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 2027-01-03 | 20.0% | $9 | $3.6K | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-TX | ||
| Michigan | 2027-01-03 | 10.0% | — | $928 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-MI | ||
| Ohio | 2027-01-03 | 10.0% | — | $901 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-OH | ||
| Nebraska | 2027-01-03 | 10.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-NE | ||
| Maine | 2027-01-03 | 9.2% | $5 | $1.1K | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-ME | ||
| New Hampshire | 2027-01-03 | 8.8% | — | $568 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-NH | ||
| Iowa | 2027-01-03 | 8.5% | — | $818 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-IA | ||
| Alaska | 2027-01-03 | 8.5% | — | $631 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-AK | ||
| North Carolina | 2027-01-03 | 8.0% | — | $499 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-NC | ||
| South Carolina | 2027-01-03 | 5.0% | — | $188 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-SC | ||
| Georgia | 2027-01-03 | 4.5% | — | $898 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-GA | ||
| Minnesota | 2027-01-03 | 4.3% | — | $259 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-MN | ||
| Kansas | 2027-01-03 | 3.0% | — | $72 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-KS | ||
| Montana | 2027-01-03 | 3.0% | $31 | $118 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-MT | ||
| Florida | 2027-01-03 | 2.0% | — | $68 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-FL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CBS News | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.
If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CBS News" sources (18) · single authority
- CBS News venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- official state or local election division websites venue-listed
- The Source Agencies are venue-listed
- ABC News venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Ballotpedia venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- NBC News venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within <elections> venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- FiveThirtyEight venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxclosestsenate-27jan03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxclosestsenate-27jan03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxclosestsenate-27jan03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7",
"slug": "kxclosestsenate-27jan03",
"question": "Will the closest Senate race in 2026 occur in a state other than Nevada?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"election-margins",
"competitive-races",
"state-specific-outcomes",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11710,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CBS News",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CBS News",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official state or local election division websites",
"url": "https://www.vote.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News",
"url": "https://abcnews.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Ballotpedia",
"url": "https://www.ballotpedia.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions",
"url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC News",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "FiveThirtyEight",
"url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}