Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 59.0% | $779 | $112K | C | KXCODINGMODE…NTH | ||
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 31.0% | $313 | $34K | C | KXCODINGMODE…PEN | ||
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | $317 | $17K | C | KXCODINGMODE…OOG | ||
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $6 | $4.0K | C | KXCODINGMODE…XAI | ||
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $422 | C | KXCODINGMODE…LIB | ||
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $624 | C | KXCODINGMODE…EEP | ||
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $126 | C | KXCODINGMODE…AID | ||
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $405 | C | KXCODINGMODE…ZAI | ||
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $551 | C | KXCODINGMODE…OON |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | LiveBench.ai | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If OpenAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "LiveBench.ai" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- LiveBench.ai source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcodingmodel-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcodingmodel-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcodingmodel-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6DVT0GSF00",
"slug": "kxcodingmodel-26dec",
"question": "Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-coding-models",
"llm-benchmarks",
"2026",
"tech-competition",
"software-development"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 168719,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "LiveBench.ai",
"resolution_source_url": "https://livebench.ai/#/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "LiveBench.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "LiveBench.ai",
"url": "https://livebench.ai/#/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}