CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the best coding model at the end of 2026 be from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, or another AI company? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 9 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 2026-12-31 57.0%
$750 $101K
A KXCODINGMODE…NTH
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 2026-12-31 30.0%
$115 $29K
A KXCODINGMODE…PEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 2026-12-31 7.0%
$34 $9.2K
A KXCODINGMODE…OOG
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 2026-12-31 3.0%
$5 $2.8K
A KXCODINGMODE…XAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 2026-12-31 2.0%
$1.1K
A KXCODINGMODE…OON
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 2026-12-31 1.0%
$419
A KXCODINGMODE…LIB
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 2026-12-31 1.0%
$624
A KXCODINGMODE…EEP
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 2026-12-31 1.0%
$126
A KXCODINGMODE…AID
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 2026-12-31 1.0%
$405
A KXCODINGMODE…ZAI
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff livebench.ai link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 9 markets · share this text
If OpenAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "livebench.ai"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcodingmodel-26dec/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcodingmodel-26dec.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxcodingmodel-26dec")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6DVT0GSF00",
  "slug": "kxcodingmodel-26dec",
  "question": "Will the best coding model at the end of 2026 be from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, or another AI company?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-coding-models",
    "llm-benchmarks",
    "2026",
    "tech-competition",
    "software-development"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 9,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 144702,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 84,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "livebench.ai",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://livebench.ai/#/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →