Will Tesla and SpaceX merge by any date? [ resolves 2027-06-01 (363D) ]
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2027?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 52.0% | $58 | $18K | B | KXCOMPANYACT…Y01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 45.0% | $49 | $11K | B | KXCOMPANYACT…R01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 42.0% | $15 | $7.3K | B | KXCOMPANYACT…R01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 41.0% | — | $4.0K | B | KXCOMPANYACT…B01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 37.0% | — | $3.9K | B | KXCOMPANYACT…C01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 33.0% | — | $5.3K | B | KXCOMPANYACT…N01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 31.0% | $19 | $3.4K | B | KXCOMPANYACT…V01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 21.0% | $186 | $2.7K | B | KXCOMPANYACT…T01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 15.0% | $183 | $2.5K | B | KXCOMPANYACT…P01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 9.0% | $439 | $2.4K | B | KXCOMPANYACT…G01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 3.0% | $255 | $1.3K | B | KXCOMPANYACT…L01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 1.0% | — | $24 | B | KXCOMPANYACT…R01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 1.0% | — | $30 | B | KXCOMPANYACT…Y01 | ||
| Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to… | 2027-06-01 | 1.0% | — | $89 | B | KXCOMPANYACT…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.
This market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.
A statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcompanyactionmerger-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcompanyactionmerger-27.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcompanyactionmerger-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
"slug": "kxcompanyactionmerger-27",
"question": "Will Tesla and SpaceX merge by any date?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"tesla-spacex",
"corporate-merger",
"elon-musk",
"acquisition",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 61609,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
"resolution_source_url": "http://www.sec.gov/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}