Will Tesla and SpaceX merge? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2027-06 ]

Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2027?

kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 14 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
May 1, 2026	2026-05-08	1.0%	—	$30	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…Y01`
Jun 1, 2026	2026-06-08	1.0%	—	$89	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…N01`
Jul 1, 2026	2026-07-01	0.0%	$37	$567	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…L01`
Aug 1, 2026	2026-08-08	4.0%	$9	$1.2K	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…G01`
Sep 1, 2026	2026-09-08	7.0%	$50	$1.7K	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…P01`
Oct 1, 2026	2026-10-08	14.0%	$208	$2.0K	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…T01`
Nov 1, 2026	2026-11-08	19.0%	$19	$2.5K	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…V01`
Dec 1, 2026	2026-12-08	24.0%	—	$3.0K	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…C01`
Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-08	24.0%	$45	$4.4K	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…N01`
Feb 1, 2027	2027-02-08	34.0%	$40	$3.4K	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…B01`
Mar 1, 2027	2027-03-08	36.0%	$106	$6.9K	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…R01`
Apr 1, 2027	2027-04-08	40.0%	$97	$11K	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…R01`
May 1, 2027	2027-05-08	54.0%	$229	$20K	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…Y01`
Apr 1, 2026	2027-06-01	1.0%	—	$24	B	`KXCOMPANYACT…R01`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 14 markets · share this text

If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity. This market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced. A statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database"

sources (27) · single authority

the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database source of record venue-listed
Fox Business venue-listed
ABC venue-listed
CNBC venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
Financial Times venue-listed
The Information venue-listed
NBC venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
company venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed
MarketWatch venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
Politico venue-listed
Yahoo Finance venue-listed
Bloomberg News venue-listed
press releases from rules text · editorial
SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q) from rules text · editorial
earnings calls from rules text · editorial
investor presentations from rules text · editorial
verified social media accounts from rules text · editorial
official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
closed	Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2026?	kalshi	`2027-06-01`	`—`
NO	Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jul 1, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jun 1, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-06-08`	`1%`
NO	Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-05-08`	`1%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (4 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-06-29T12:30:10+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Tesla-SpaceX merger stance splits sharply across venues Polymarket 28% vs Kalshi 10%
- Polymarket prices the merger at 28%, Kalshi at 10%, an 18pp gap on a sub-90-day horizon.
- Polymarket is the higher-conviction side with substantially deeper liquidity; Kalshi volume is thin.
- Kalshi's tighter resolution wording ('definitive, binding agreement') may be driving its lower price vs Polymarket's crowd interpretation.
- Resolution requires a publicly confirmed binding corporate agreement before Oct 1, 2026, a high legal bar.
2026-06-29T01:47:46+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Tesla-SpaceX merger odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 27% vs Kalshi 14%
- Polymarket prices the merger at 27%, Kalshi at 14%, a 13pp spread on the same Sep 2026 claim.
- Polymarket is the higher-conviction venue with substantially deeper liquidity; Kalshi book is thin.
- Thin Kalshi volume may reflect retail skepticism or tighter resolution-criteria reading on 'binding agreement'.
- Contract resolves on a publicly announced, definitive, binding merger or acquisition agreement before Oct 1, 2026.
2026-06-27T10:03:41+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Tesla-SpaceX merger claim splits sharply across venues Polymarket 28% vs Kalshi 14%
- Polymarket prices the merger at 28%, Kalshi at 14%, a 14pp gap on the same claim.
- Polymarket is the higher-conviction side with cumulative volume dwarfing Kalshi's thin book.
- Kalshi's lower price likely reflects stricter reading of 'definitive, binding agreement' within a 3-month window; Polymarket crowd may be pricing Musk-consolidation speculation more loosely.
- Resolution requires a publicly announced, legally binding deal structure, a high bar that may anchor Kalshi traders lower.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcompanyactionmerger-27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcompanyactionmerger-27`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxcompanyactionmerger-27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
  "slug": "kxcompanyactionmerger-27",
  "question": "Will Tesla and SpaceX merge?",
  "category": "companies",
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "tesla-spacex-merger",
    "elon-musk-companies",
    "corporate-acquisition",
    "space-industry",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 14,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 57096,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 75,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
  "resolution_source_url": "http://www.sec.gov/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database",
      "url": "http://www.sec.gov/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox Business",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNBC",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Financial Times",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "company",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MarketWatch",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yahoo Finance",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "press releases",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "earnings calls",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "investor presentations",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "verified social media accounts",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →