CPI month-over-month, June 2026 [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-10 ]
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in June 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ -0.2% | 2026-07-14 | 0.0% | $2.1K | $1.3K | A | KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.2 | ||
| ≥ -0.3% | 2026-10-13 | 99.0% | — | $570 | A | KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.3 | ||
| ≥ -0.1% | 2026-10-13 | 64.0% | $4.8K | $10K | A | KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0% | 2026-10-13 | 36.0% | $1.9K | $6.2K | A | KXCPI-26JUN-T0.0 | ||
| ≥ 0.1% | 2026-10-13 | 16.0% | $1.1K | $4.0K | A | KXCPI-26JUN-T0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0.2% | 2026-10-13 | 4.0% | $183 | $752 | A | KXCPI-26JUN-T0.2 | ||
| ≥ 0.3% | 2026-10-13 | 4.0% | $163 | $806 | A | KXCPI-26JUN-T0.3 | ||
| ≥ 0.4% | 2026-10-13 | 4.0% | $21 | $594 | A | KXCPI-26JUN-T0.4 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2026-10-13 | 3.0% | $3 | $308 | A | KXCPI-26JUN-T0.5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (July 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Source Agency from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in June 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-14 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- June CPI monthly change consensus anchors near negative territory Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies the June 2026 CPI monthly change in the -0.3% to -0.2% range: 80% above -0.3% but only 36% above -0.2%, with sharp dropoff above zero.
- Trading volume on this Kalshi ladder surged 14,950% day over day, with the weak jobs print and Bitcoin rally both drawing fresh CPI positioning.
- A deflationary monthly CPI print would combine with the soft labor market to reinforce the case for Fed cuts priced in the companion rate ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5).
- A separate Kalshi ladder for August 2026 CPI (CM-EVT-D057W6W251) implies a return to positive territory near 0.1-0.2%, suggesting the market treats June deflation as a one-month dip, not a trend.
- June CPI monthly change consensus anchors near negative 0.3 percent Kalshi ladder
- Ladder implies June CPI monthly change near -0.3%: 82% probability above -0.3% but only 34% above -0.2%.
- A soft labor market print supports a benign or negative monthly CPI read; the ladder distribution is consistent with disinflation expectations.
- The sharp drop from 82% to 34% between the -0.3% and -0.2% strikes signals the market has strong conviction around that narrow band.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for June 2026; seasonal adjustment methodology can shift the final monthly figure.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpi-26jun |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpi-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
"slug": "kxcpi-26jun",
"question": "CPI month-over-month, June 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"cpi",
"inflation",
"economic-data",
"us-macro",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24578,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Source Agency",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}